Robin Daverman 关于新冠病毒问题谣言的最新回答

背景：Robin Daverman是国外知乎Quora网站上高分答主，据传他|她曾经于上世纪就读于南开大学。是Quora上少有的中国通，其回答涵盖各个领域，用语简洁明了、逻辑严谨清晰，每一篇回答都数据详实、行文流畅，显示其强大的分析、归纳和表达能力。我常常把其回答当作英文范文阅读，所以每次翻译都将其英文回答一并奉上。

Robin Daverman, International traveler

Answered 8h ago

Nassim Taleb said about Coronavirus outbreak "without extreme paranoia, we can't survive. Ergodicity requires ignoring costs-benefits in the presence of ruin problems." What is your view on this?

问题：Nassim Taleb对新冠病毒爆发评价到：“如果没有绝对的偏执，我们无法生存。遍历性（Ergodicity 数学术语，大神可以解释，我查了没看懂）要求在出现破产问题的情况下，忽略成本效益。”你的观点是什么？

（译者的个人观点是吐槽掉书袋、不说英语的这些“专家”。此外，《只有偏执狂才能生存》是IBM传奇总裁，安德鲁.格鲁夫1996年出版的经典管理书籍，鄙视用别人的话不注明出处的人。注：Nassim Taleb是一位美籍黎巴嫩作家、风投人，不想给他做广告所以不放图。）

原答案如下：

呃...他要卖书，一本关于财务管理中"去杠杆"风险的书。他是金融背景的专家，他不了解生物科技或公共健康的任何事情。

Meh he’s trying to sell his book, which is about deleveraging risks in financial management. That’s his background. He doesn’t know anything about biology or public health.

而且他的第一句话惹我发笑。 我是说假如你是一名生物学家，那么你要想清楚，“我们”是谁？在这个地球上有如此多种类的生物顽强地生存了下来，它们中的很多并没有可被识别的意识，更别提“绝对的偏执”了。打个比方，香蕉。（如果大神看港片，我觉得他在骂人）也许Taleb教授口袋里有一个非常偏执的香蕉活了下来，而没有绝对偏执的香蕉死掉了？基本上，这个人想对疫苗加强针可控的流感“绝对偏执”。

The first sentence makes me laugh though. I mean if you are a biologist, then you have to wonder, who’s “we”? There are so many, many, many species on earth that are surviving robustly, without even having a discernible consciousness, let alone “extreme paranoia”. For example, banana. Maybe Professor Taleb has an extremely paranoid banana in his pocket that’s surviving, and those not-paranoid bananas, not surviving? The dude wants to go “extreme paranoia” over what’s essentially a flu with booster-pack.

哦，不，我错了。他不是想对疫苗加强针可控的流感“绝对偏执”，他只是希望你们买书。你知道一个真正的“绝对偏执狂”会做什么吗？他不会有上网发推特的时间。他会为自己和家人买齐所有的装备：N95口罩（一天换4次）、防护服（一天两件）、消毒剂（一天一次），备上至少一年半的储备食物（这是一次全球性瘟疫持续的最短时间），找到一个最远的小屋安顿下来。他会和自己的全家带上所有装备和物资，加上水、电、暖气、其他必需品，然后缩在小屋里一年半。这才是一个货真价实的绝对偏执狂会做的事。他（Dr Taleb）在做这些吗？没有？看吧，他只是想让你们买书并且订阅推特账号。

But no, I was wrong. He doesn’t want to go “extreme paranoia” himself. He just wants you to buy his book. Do you know what an “extreme paranoid” will do? He wouldn’t have the time to tweet on the internet. He’d find the remotest cabin he can find, buy up N95 face masks (4 a day per person), body protection (2 a day per person), disinfectant (once a day) for himself and his whole family, enough supply for at least a year and a half (which is how long the worldwide flu epidemic will last, at least). He’d move his whole family, all that supplies, plus food, water, heating, essentials, and hole up there for the next year and a half. That would be what a real “extremely paranoid” person would do. Is he doing that? No? See, he just wants you to buy his book and follow his tweets.

所以你现在知道为何猫会一直无视人们说的话啦——“因为大部分时候，人们讲的都是废话。”但是如果一条狗叫了，那么猫就会立刻有反应！（我觉得大神@所有人，可是还是读得很高兴怎么破！）你看吧，这就是人和狗之间存在的所谓“公信力差距”。这和你所说的内容无关，和你的所作所为有关。如果Taleb教授的话，即使只对全球1%的人有像狗对猫这样的公信力，那么所有的超市都会被买空，Walgreens/CVS/沃尔玛都会被买空，全球的城市房地产价格会直线坠落。因为啊，谁会想在传染病爆发期住在摩肩擦踵的地方，真可笑！

So now you know why cats ignore whatever people say all the time - ’cause most of what people say are BS anyway. But a dog bark, that’s what a cat will react immediately! See, that’s what a “credibility gap” looks like, between humans and dogs. It’s not about what you say, but about what you do. If Professor Taleb has the kind of credibility dogs have with cats, even if with only 1% of the population, all the grocery stores would be emptied out, Walgreens/CVS/Walmart would be emptied out, real estate market in all the cities would be dropping like a rock instantaneously, ’cause who would want to rub shoulders with other people during an infectious disease outbreak, LOL!

译者说：最近朋友圈很多人传各种外国专家的夸张数据，其实老祖宗早就告诉我们了，一个人的基本品质和其学位多少没有关系，反而知识越多、算计越多。大家不用迷信国外啊，有时候，翻个白眼就行了。

仗义每多屠狗辈，负心多是读书人 ——明 曹学佺

避席畏闻文字狱 ，著书都为稻粱谋 ——清 龚自珍《咏史》