一战后，盟军肢解了奥匈帝国。保持帝国的完整是否更明智？

【来源龙腾网】

评论原创翻译：

Marisa Duchêne

Something which many forget is that the Austro-Hungarian empire didn’t disappear after the treaties of Saint-German and Trianon in 1919 and 1920. It had already disappeared in the autumn of 1918; the empire effectively collapsed and lost any form of effective authority in October and November of 1918.

As early as early October, unrest was already rising in the Hasburg empire, as the left half of the political sphere called for peace, supported by the minorities of Austria-Hungary; as the Austro-Hungarian military was in retreat on the Italian front. Pretty much every minority-majority area, but especially in Croatia and Bohemia, orders from Vienna started to be disregarded or disobeyed. On the 28th of October, four days after the decisive Italian victory of Vittorio Veneto, the Czech took control over Prague, and started to do the same for other cities of Czechia. On the 30th, the Slovaks decided to do the same. On the 28th, the South Slavs declared the state of State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs, ruling over Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia, and then proceeded to seize the Austro-Hungarian fleet (with the agreement of emperor Karl the First, who wanted to avoid seeing those fall in the Entente’s hands). In december, the South Slavs state merged with Serbia, creating what would become Yugoslavia. Czechoslovakia was also established on the 29th.

许多人忘了，奥匈帝国并不是在1919年和1920年的圣日耳曼和特里亚侬条约之后消失的。它在1918年秋天就已经结束了；帝国在1918年10月和11月基本上就已经崩溃了，失去了任何形式的有效权力。

早在10月初，哈斯堡帝国的动荡就已经开始了，因为政治领域的左半边要求和平，并得到了奥匈帝国少数民族的支持；当奥匈帝国的军队在意大利前线撤退时。几乎每个少数民族占多数的地区，特别是在克罗地亚和波西米亚，对来自维也纳的命令开始忽视或不服从。10月28日，在意大利取得维托里奥-维内托的决定性胜利四天后，捷克人控制了布拉格，并开始对捷克的其他城市采取同样的行动。30日，斯洛伐克人决定采取同样的行动。28日，南斯拉夫人宣布成立斯洛文尼亚人、克罗地亚人和塞尔维亚人的国家，统治斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚和波斯尼亚，然后着手夺取奥匈帝国的舰队（得到了卡尔一世皇帝的同意，他希望避免看到这些舰队落入协约国手中）。12月，南斯拉夫人国家与塞尔维亚合并，形成了后来的南斯拉夫。捷克斯洛伐克也在29日成立。

The SMS Viribus Unitis battleship of the State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs navy, is sunk by a manned torpedo of the Italian navy. Unaware of the ship’s cession to the new South Slavs state, Italy wanted to eliminate the remains of the Austro-Hungarian fleet in order to avoid seeing a rivaling naval power rise in the Adriatic Sea.

On the 11th of November, emperor Karl the First announced he would no longer participate in Austrian politics; the same day, the Republic of German Austria was proclaimed. On the 16th, it was the turn of Hungary to proclaim a Republic and leave the Hasburg Empire, depriving them of their last territory. Hungary then experienced a communist revolution, and attacked Czechoslovakia and Romania. It quickly failed, and was eventually invaded by the Romanian army, which occupied almost all of Hungary; while in Budapest and what we know as Hungary nowadays, the Romanians weren’t here to stray, they indeed prepared the annexation of Transylvania. The Second Polish Republic also strongly held Galicia; Italy had taken control of Istria and South Tyrol, and even occupied Yugoslav Dalmatia.

Romanian artillery parade through Budapest, the Hungarian capital, 1919

斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚和塞尔维亚民族国家海军的SMS Viribus Unitis战舰，被意大利海军的一枚鱼雷击沉。由于不知道该舰已经被割让给新的南斯拉夫人国家，意大利想消灭奥匈帝国舰队的残骸，以避免看到一个竞争对手的海军力量在亚得里亚海上崛起。

11月11日，皇帝卡尔一世宣布他将不再参与奥地利的政治；同一天，德意志奥地利共和国宣布成立。16日，轮到匈牙利宣布成立共和国并离开哈斯堡帝国，剥夺了他们最后的领土。匈牙利随后经历了一场共产主义革命，并进攻捷克斯洛伐克和罗马尼亚。它很快就失败了，最终被罗马尼亚军队入侵，几乎占领了整个匈牙利；而在布达佩斯和我们现在所知道的匈牙利，罗马尼亚人并不是来这里玩的，他们确实准备吞并特兰西瓦尼亚。波兰第二共和国也强占了加利西亚；意大利控制了伊斯特拉和南蒂罗尔，甚至还占领了南斯拉夫的达尔马提亚。

If the allies wanted to restore an Austro-Hungarian empire in the treaties of Saint-Germain and Trianon, they would have to overthrow the Austrian Republic and the new Horthy regency in Hungary, but also to oppose their World War One allies, Serbia/Yugoslavia, Romania, Italy, Poland and Czechoslovakia (a number of Czechoslovak and Polish prisoners fought for the Entente, and governments in exile were created for both). It would make absolutely no sense: Not only would the re-created Austro-Hungarian empire need massive support not to just fall, but the whole process would be way too costly in funds and men for the ruined Entente power of France and Great-Britain, who were already engaged against the Soviet unx in Russia and had populations that just wanted peace after four years of devastating conflict. While some may argue some territories like the Sudetenland or Southern Slovakia should have been given back to Austria and Hungary, even that would be impossible, at it is unlikely the Czechoslovakian state would agree to give up those crucial territories.

The Austro-Hungarian empire was already dead by October of 1918. No one would want to bring it back after all of its territories had been seized by other factions, nor keep supporting it so it don’t implode once again. To be honest, nothing could save the Austro-Hungarian empire by the point the Entente won the war - not even the Entente itself.

如果盟国想在《圣日耳曼条约》和《特里亚侬条约》中恢复奥匈帝国，他们就必须推翻奥地利共和国政权和匈牙利的新霍尔蒂政权，还要反对他们的一战盟友塞尔维亚/南斯拉夫、罗马尼亚、意大利、波兰和捷克斯洛伐克（一些捷克斯洛伐克和波兰的战俘为协约国作战，并为这两个国家建立流亡政府）。这完全没有意义。不仅重新建立的奥匈帝国需要大量的支持才不会倒下，而且整个过程对法国和英国这些被毁的协约国来说，在资金和人员方面付出的代价太大，因为他们已经在俄罗斯与苏联交战，而且在四年的破坏性冲突之后，他们的民众只想获得和平。虽然有些人可能会说，像苏台德地区或南斯洛伐克这样的一些领土应该还给奥地利和匈牙利，但即使这样也是不可能的，因为捷克斯洛伐克民族国家不可能同意放弃这些关键领土。

奥匈帝国在1918年10月就已经死亡。在它的所有领土都被其他派别夺取之后，没有人会想让它复生，也没有人会继续支持它，看着它再次内爆。说实话，在协约国赢得战争时，没有什么能拯救奥匈帝国--甚至协约国本身也不行。

Yumou Wei

But would the Dual Monarchy still have collapsed if Wilson didn't propose the Fourteen Points in early 1918?

但是，如果威尔逊没有在1918年初提出十四点建议，二元君主制还会崩溃吗？

Marisa Duchêne

Yes, it would. Nationalisms within the Austro-Hungarian empire existed for far longer than the Fourteen Points. By 1918, the Czechoslovak and Polish legions were already a thing.

Furthermore, I doubt much of the population of Austria-Hungary even heard about the Fourteen Points prior to the collapse of the Hasburgs. While the fourteen points had an influence on the peace that was concluded, their role in the dissolution of Austria-Hungary was most likely minimal.

是的，会的。奥匈帝国内部的民族主义存在的时间远比十四点原则长。到1918年，捷克斯洛伐克和波兰的军团已经是一个不可忽视的存在了。

此外，我怀疑在哈斯堡王朝垮台之前，奥匈帝国的许多人甚至有没有听说过十四点原则。虽然十四点原则对达成的和平有影响，但它们在奥匈帝国解体中的作用很可能是微乎其微的。

Wayne Solomon

Also, Hungary was never happy being in the Empire. They felt like second class citizens and wanted their independence.

另外，匈牙利在帝国中从来都不开心。他们觉得自己是二等公民，希望自己独立。

Leo Severin

There is quite the arguement that the Hungarian’s strive for independence hamstrung the Empire. Another interesting point is that Jan Smuts of all people advocated for the restoration of Austria Hungary.

有相当多的论点认为，匈牙利人争取独立的努力阻碍了帝国的发展。另一个有趣的观点是，扬-斯穆特主张恢复奥地利-匈牙利国家。

Dušan Peterc

Nice answer, I am only confused about the location of “Yugoslav Galicia”, as Galicia is quite far both from Yugoslavia and even further from Italy.

不错的回答，我只是对"南斯拉夫的加利西亚"的位置感到困惑，因为加利西亚离南斯拉夫很远，离意大利更远。

Marisa Duchêne

Oh, that was a mistake. I meant Dalmatia…

哦，那是我写错了。我想说的是说达尔马提亚...

Jose Geraldo Gouvea

Wasn’t Austria-Hungary already collapsing slowly since the Napoleonic Wars?

奥匈帝国不是从拿破仑战争开始就已经慢慢崩溃了吗？

Alexandru Dragomir

Nice summary and quite complete. Being Romanian, I can't discuss anything with a Hungarian to this day because Hungarians think Trianon the definitive national tragedy which lost them transylvania…and other less important territories. The Magyars were easily the biggest losers of the Hapsburg collapse, imo.

很好的总结，相当完整。作为罗马尼亚人，我至今都不能和匈牙利人讨论任何问题，因为匈牙利人认为特里亚侬会议是决定性的民族悲剧，使他们失去了特兰西瓦尼亚......和其他不太重要的领土。在哈布斯堡王朝的崩溃中，马扎尔人是最大的失败者，我认为。

Dan Schillace

Well said. The Empire was DOA pretty much before the war started thanks to Franz Joseph’s unwillingness to consider reform. If Franz Ferdinand wasn’t assassinated, the Empire had a potential future as he was much more progressive in his political views. He knew things needed to change and even had some plans already in place for when he became Emperor. Of course, history went the other way.

说得好。由于弗朗茨-约瑟夫不愿意考虑改革，帝国在战争开始前就已经死了。如果弗朗茨-费迪南没有被暗杀，帝国还有潜在的未来，因为他的政治观点要进步得多。他知道事情需要改变，甚至已经为他成为皇帝后制定了一些计划。当然，历史走向了另一个方向。

Nicolae Tudosie

Romania did not annex Transilvania. Transilvanian romanians proclaimed their desire to unite with Romania - and they were a majority there. Same thing in the northern Banat.

The occupation of Budapesta has little to do with the unx. As soon as a non-communist hungarian government took the reigns, romanians retreated and the final borders were negotiated.

罗马尼亚并没有吞并特兰西瓦尼亚。特兰西瓦尼亚的罗马尼亚人宣称他们希望与罗马尼亚统一，而且他们在那里占多数。在巴纳特北部也是如此。

对布达佩斯塔的占领与重新统一没有什么关系。非共产党的匈牙利政府一掌权，罗马尼亚人就撤退了，最后的边界也谈成了。

Werner Furrer

Very interesting analysis, which actually Churchill missed to take note of. Instead he lamented in his memoirs, that it had been a mistake, to destroy the Austria-Hungarian empire, so that this became a prey of Germany during the prologue to WWII.

非常有趣的分析，实际上丘吉尔并没有注意到这一点。相反，他在回忆录中哀叹，摧毁奥匈帝国是一个错误，以至于在二战的序幕中，前奥匈帝国地区成为了德国的猎物。

Bulat Ziganshin

>the Soviet unx in Russia

it was declared in Dec 1922

>在俄罗斯与苏联作战

后者于1922年12月宣布成立

Marisa Duchêne

Sure, it was, by the time the treaties were signed, not formally created; but the Soviets Republics were already a thing. I did it to simplify, as I don’t think it would have been pleasant to include the name of all Soviet Republics, and it would just have confused those who did not hear about the Russian civil war.

当然，在签署条约的时候，它还没有正式成立；但那时的苏维埃共和国已经是一个不可忽视的存在了。我这样做是为了简化，因为我认为把所有苏维埃共和国的名称都包括进去并不令人愉快，而且这只会让那些没有听说过俄罗斯内战的人感到困惑。

Adam Gawlowski

And something tells me, the entente wouldnt have decided to fight their former allies, Serbia, Czechoslovakia, Poland in the name of their former enemy, Austria-Hungary. “Soldiers, you remember those you fought and those who helped you. Well uh, now fight the ones who helped you and help those who fought you” Though for Czechs, there was actually a debate as some preferred autonomy status in the empire, though that ended when it was certain it would lose

直觉告诉我，协约国不会决定为了他们以前的敌人奥匈帝国，而与他们以前的盟友塞尔维亚、捷克斯洛伐克、波兰作战。“士兵们，你们记得那些你们战斗过的人和那些帮助过你们的人。”尽管对捷克人来说，实际上确实有过一场辩论，因为有些人更喜欢在帝国中的自治地位，但当帝国在战争中确定会输的时候，辩论就结束了。