福布斯为中美脱钩摇旗呐喊：数据显示美企会离开中国

最新一期福布斯网站发表文章，配合美国全国经济委员会主任库德洛搬离中国的说辞，并给出了相关的数据。显然非一日之功，发表时间与官员讲话相互配合、丝丝入扣，早有布局。

New Data Shows U.S. Companies Are Definitely Leaving China

最新数据显示，美国企业肯定会离开中国

Kenneth Rapoza 肯尼斯 · 拉波扎

The trade war saw a fall in China exports to the U.S. Companies restructured their supply chains. ... [+]

贸易战使中国对美国的出口下降。公司重组了他们的供应链... ... [ + ]

U.S. companies are leaving China thanks to the trade war. They’ll leave even more thanks to the pandemic.

由于贸易战，美国公司正在离开中国。由于疫情的蔓延，他们将离开更多的中国。

Sorry, Davos Man. Your China-led globalization is going out of style like bell bottoms.

对不起，达沃斯人。你们中国主导的全球化正在像喇叭裤一样过时。

Global manufacturing consulting firm Kearney released its seventh annual Reshoring Index on Tuesday, showing what it called a “dramatic reversal” of a five-year trend as domestic U.S. manufacturing in 2019 commanded a significantly greater share versus 14 Asian exporters tracked in the study. Manufacturing imports from China were the hardest hit.

周二，全球制造业咨询公司科尔尼(Kearney)发布了第七个年度“回流指数”(Reshoring Index)。该指数显示，2019年美国国内制造业所占份额明显高于该研究追踪的14个亚洲出口商，从而“戏剧性逆转”了五年来的趋势。 从中国进口的制造业受到的打击最大。

Last year saw companies actively rethinking their supply chain, either convincing their Chinese partners to relocate to southeast Asia to avoid tariffs, or by opting out of sourcing from China altogether.

去年，中国企业积极重新思考自己的供应链，要么说服中国合作伙伴迁往东南亚以避免关税，要么完全放弃从中国采购。

"Three decades ago, U.S. producers began manufacturing and sourcing in China for one reason: costs. The trade war brought a second dimension more fully into the equation―risk―as tariffs and the threat of disrupted China imports prompted companies to weigh surety of supply more fully alongside costs. COVID-19 brings a third dimension more fully into the mix­, and arguably to the fore: resilience―the ability to foresee and adapt to unforeseen systemic shocks," says Patrick Van den Bossche, Kearney partner and co-author of the 19-page report.

“30年前，美国制造商开始在中国制造和采购，原因只有一个: 成本。 随着关税和中断中国进口的威胁促使企业在衡量成本的同时，更全面地权衡供应的保证，贸易战为等式带来了第二个维度——风险。 这份长达19页的报告的合著者、 Kearney 合伙人 Patrick Van den Bossche 说: “新型冠状病毒肺炎将第三维度更充分地融入其中，而且可以说更加突出: 韧性——预见和适应不可预见的系统性冲击的能力。”。

The main beneficiaries of this are the smaller southeast Asian nations, led by Vietnam. And thanks to the passing of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, Mexico, for all its problems with drug cartels, has become a favorite spot for sourcing.

主要受益者是以越南为首的较小的东南亚国家。 由于美墨加协议的通过，墨西哥，由于其与贩毒集团的所有问题，已经成为一个最受欢迎的采购点。

Coronavirus Could Be The End Of China As A Global Manufacturing Hub 冠状病毒可能终结中国作为全球制造中心的地位

In 2020, the trade war seemed to be on pause. Sadly, it gave way to a global pandemic that emanated from the Hubei province in China. The new SARS coronavirus has literally closed the economies of the Western world and created a public relations nightmare for China.

2020年，贸易战似乎暂停了。 不幸的是，它让位于来自中国湖北省的全球性流行病。 新型 SARS 冠状病毒确实关闭了西方世界的经济，并为中国制造了一场公关噩梦。

Not only that, companies were unable to get supply online in February and early March due to factory closures there, stalling business in the U.S.

不仅如此，由于那里的工厂关闭，企业无法在2月和3月初获得在线供应，导致美国业务停滞。

Once China got up and running, the U.S. was hit between the eyes with the deadly COVID-19 disease caused by the rapidly spreading new SARS. Even if China was fully healed, the U.S was stuck in sick bay.

一旦中国开始行动，美国就被迅速蔓延的新 SARS 引起的致命的新型冠状病毒肺炎病毒感染了。 即使中国完全恢复了健康，美国也被困在了医务室里。

The full extent of the societal and economic trauma the coronavirus pandemic may cause is unknown still, the Kearney report’s authors wrote. But whatever the outcome, a return to status quo China trade pre-pandemic is unlikely.

科尔尼报告的作者写道，冠状病毒大流行可能造成的社会和经济创伤的全部程度仍然是未知的。 但无论结果如何，中国贸易不太可能恢复到大规模流行前的状态。

Kearney predicts companies “will be compelled to go much further in rethinking their sourcing strategies, (and) their entire supply chains.”

科尔尼预计，企业“将不得不进一步重新思考其采购战略，(以及)整个供应链。”

(That sounds about right...)

(听起来差不多... ...)

Coronavirus Pandemic Changes Forever The U.S.-China Relationship 冠状病毒大流行永远改变美中关系

Specifically, the Kearney report’s authors wrote that they expect companies will be increasingly inclined to spread their risks, as opposed to relying solely on China as this pandemic has exposed them.

具体来说，科尔尼报告的作者写道，他们预计公司将越来越倾向于分散风险，而不是像这场流行病暴露出来的那样完全依赖中国。

China is the go-to source for ibuprofen, hazmat suits, rubber gloves, surgical masks, ventilators. Probably toilet paper, for all we know. How this is not a national security issue is something being raised by senators including Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Tom Cotton (R-AK).

中国是布洛芬、防护服、橡胶手套、外科口罩、呼吸机的首选来源。 据我们所知，可能是卫生纸。 包括乔希 · 霍利(R-MO)和汤姆 · 科顿(R-AK)在内的参议员正在提出这个问题为什么不是国家安全问题。

The threat going forward of political anger toward China, not to mention future pandemics stemming from China (the first SARS came from there in 2002-03), means that companies will want to hedge their supply chain strategy by spreading their risks.

对中国政治愤怒的威胁日益加剧，更不用说来自中国的未来流行病(首次非典型肺炎发生在2002-03年) ，这意味着企业将希望通过分散风险来对冲其供应链战略。

That doesn’t mean a full abandonment of China. It does mean China’s days as the go-to manufacturing hub for the Western world are over.

这并不意味着完全放弃中国。 这确实意味着中国作为西方世界制造业中心的日子已经结束。

The Post-Coronavirus World May Be The End Of Globalization 后冠状病毒世界可能是全球化的终结

The Index Explained

索引解释

The Reshoring Index compares U.S. manufacturing gross output to import data from 14 Asian low-cost countries.

Reshoring 指数将美国制造业总产出与来自14个亚洲低成本国家的进口数据进行比较。

To gauge the U.S. Reshoring Index, Kearney first looks at the import of manufactured goods from China, Taiwan, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, and Cambodia; and secondly looks at U.S. domestic gross output of manufactured goods.  

为了衡量美国的回流指数，科尔尼首先考察了从中国、台湾、马来西亚、印度、越南、泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、菲律宾、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、香港、斯里兰卡和柬埔寨进口的制成品; 其次考察了美国制成品的国内生产总值。

They then calculate the manufacturing import ratio (MIR) — the result of dividing the first number by the second. The U.S. Reshoring Index is the year-over-year change in the MIR, expressed in basis points (1 percent change = 100 basis points).

然后他们计算制造进口比率(MIR)ーー第一个数除以第二个数的结果。 美国回流指数是 MIR 的年度变化，以基点表示(1% 变化100个基点)。

The numerator of the MIR is the sum of the value of all manufactured imports from those 14 Asian countries— which decreased from $816 billion in 2018 to $757 billion in 2019, a contraction of 7% at a time of solid American economic growth.

Mir 的分子是来自这14个亚洲国家的所有制成品进口价值的总和，从2018年的8,160亿美元下降到2019年的7,570亿美元，在美国经济稳步增长的时候下降了7% 。

According to Kearney, the contraction is almost exclusively driven by the decline in imports from China, which fell the most at 17% due to tariff costs.

根据科尔尼的说法，经济的萎缩几乎完全是由于从中国进口的下降，由于关税成本，中国的进口下降幅度最大，为17% 。

The only way for the U.S. to make itself attractive to corporate investment is to get its costs on par with China. While it cannot compete with China on labor costs, the U.S. can compete on corporate taxes, an abundant and qualified blue collar labor force, and by implementing environmental regulations that don’t force companies to overspend on technologies and consultants that just end up eating into their bottom line.

美国吸引企业投资的唯一方法就是使其成本与中国相当。 虽然美国在劳动力成本方面无法与中国竞争，但是美国可以在企业税收、大量合格的蓝领劳动力以及实施环保法规方面与中国竞争，这些法规不会强迫企业在技术和顾问上超支，而这些技术和顾问最终会侵蚀企业的利润。

President Trump likes to say that his tariffs are being paid for by the Chinese. It is U.S. importers, of course, that pay the duties at the ports. But the Chinese partners of the U.S. company suffers because the U.S. importer is now paying more for Made in China. That reduces the cost benefit of using China as an export hub.

特朗普总统喜欢说，他的关税是由中国人支付的。 当然，是美国的进口商在港口支付关税。 但是这家美国公司的中国合作伙伴受到了影响，因为美国进口商现在为中国制造支付了更多的费用。 这降低了将中国作为出口中心的成本效益。

The resulting 98-basis-point jump in the Kearney Reshoring Index is by far the biggest annualized change in favor of U.S. companies in five years.

由此导致的 Kearney Reshoring 指数上涨98个基点，是迄今为止美国企业五年来最大的年化变化。

The Coronavirus Is Becoming A Public Relations Disaster For China 冠状病毒正在成为中国的公共关系灾难

Vietnam Wins Asia. Mexico Winning Americas.

越南赢得亚洲，墨西哥赢得美洲。

The Kearney China Diversification Index (CDI) tracks the shift in U.S. manufacturing imports away from China and to other Asian countries on the list.

科尔尼中国多样化指数(CDI)追踪了美国制造业进口从中国转移到其他亚洲国家的情况。

China is still the leader, but she is increasingly losing share in the Trump years.

中国仍然是领导者，但在特朗普执政期间，她的份额越来越少。

In 2013, the base year for the CDI, China held 67% of all U.S.-bound Asian-sourced manufactured goods. By the second quarter 2019, its share collapsed 56%, a decrease of more than 1,000 basis points.

2013年是 CDI 的基准年，中国拥有67% 的来自美国的亚洲制成品。 到2019年第二季度，其份额暴跌了56% ，跌幅超过1000个基点。

Of the $31 billion in U.S. imports that shifted away from China, some 46% was absorbed by Vietnam, sometimes by the same Chinese suppliers who left the mainland. Vietnam exported an additional $14 billion worth of manufactured goods to the U.S. in 2019 versus 2018 as a result of that shift.

在从中国转移出来的310亿美元的美国进口中，约有46% 被越南吸收，有时被离开中国大陆的同一批中国供应商吸收。 与2018年相比，2019年越南向美国出口了价值140亿美元的制成品。

Mexico is the China of the Americas.

墨西哥是美洲的中国。

Kearney introduced its Near-to-Far Trade Ratio (NTFR) this year. It tracks the movement of U.S. imports toward nearshore production in Mexico. The NTFR is calculated as a ratio of the annual total dollar value of Mexican manufactured goods to the U.S., divided by the dollar value of manufactured imports from the Asian 14, including China.

科尔尼公司今年推出了其远近贸易比率(NTFR)。 它追踪了美国进口商品向墨西哥近海生产的流动。 国内生产总值是墨西哥制成品对美国年度总价值的比率，除以从包括中国在内的14个亚洲国家进口的制成品的美元价值。

Since 2013, the NTFR has hovered steadily between 36% and 38% —meaning for every dollar of U.S. manufacturing goods from Asia, there were approximately 37 cents worth of manufacturing imports coming from Mexico.

自2013年以来，非关税对冲基金一直稳步徘徊在36% 至38% 之间。这意味着，每一美元的美国制造业产品来自亚洲，大约有37美分的制造业进口来自墨西哥。

That changed with the USMCA.

随着 USMCA 的推出，这种情况发生了改变。

Mexico has gone from 38% to 42%. On a dollar-value basis, total manufacturing imports from Mexico to the U.S. increased 10% between 2017 and 2018, from $278 billion to $307 billion, and by another 4% between 2018 and 2019, to a total import value of $320 billion, based on the Kearney report.

墨西哥从38% 上升到42% 。 根据科尔尼公司的报告，按美元价值计算，2017年至2018年间，从墨西哥到美国的制造业进口总值增长了10% ，从2780亿美元增长到3070亿美元，2018年至2019年间增长了4% ，进口总值达到3200亿美元。

"The door for these insurgents was clearly opened by ongoing U.S.–China trade disputes, as their gains were mainly in product categories impacted by tariffs," says Yuri Castano, Kearney manager and co-author of the study. "Apparently, the trade war jolted U.S. companies to start rethinking and reshaping their supply networks."

该研究报告的合著者、 Kearney 经理尤里•卡斯塔诺(Yuri Castano)表示: “美中贸易争端的持续存在，显然为这些叛乱分子打开了大门，因为他们的收益主要来自受关税影响的产品类别。”。 “显然，贸易战让美国企业开始重新思考并重塑其供应网络。”

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