划重点！新型冠状病毒的危害性你知道吗？

解读中国工作室推荐的系列短视频节目《你不了解的科学防疫知识》，今日推出第九集：《2019新型冠状病毒有多危险？》。

截至北京时间3月26日，中国以外共192个国家累计确诊新冠肺炎病例384,434例，累计死亡17,656例。全球确诊和疑似病例数据在短时间内激增。随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球范围蔓延，越来越多的人感到恐惧和焦虑。在铺天盖地的新冠肺炎消息中，究竟哪些是真？哪些是假？正确的防疫知识又有哪些？

▲《你不了解的科学防疫知识》第9集：《2019新型冠状病毒有多危险?》

2020年春节前夕，全球暴发新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情。这是继严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒（SARS-CoV）和中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）之后，再次出现一种新的对人类有较高致病性的冠状病毒，世界卫生组织将之命名为2019-nCoV，即2019新型冠状病毒。

The eve of the 2020 Spring Festival saw the global outbreak of COVID-19, caused by a new coronavirus highly pathogenic to humans since severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The World Health Organization (WHO) named it 2019-nCoV (2019 novel coronavirus).

除了SARS和MERS，目前已知可感染人类的冠状病毒共有六种。其中四种是人类普通感冒的常见病原体。自21世纪以来，SARS、MERS加入可传染人类的冠状病毒大军，通过动物作为中间宿主传播，给人类健康带来严重威胁。

SARS病毒的天然宿主是中华菊头蝠。2002年11月，SARS在中国广东顺德首发，并扩散至东南亚乃至全球，超过8,000人被感染，造成约900人死亡，病死率约为10%。

The natural host of SARS virus is Rhinolophus sinicus. In November 2002, the first case of SARS was identified in Shunde, Guangdong Province of China, and had spread to Southeast Asia and even acrossthe world. More than 8,000 people were infected, and some 900 died, with afatality rate around 10%.

普遍认为MERS病毒来源于蝙蝠，通过单峰骆驼这个中间宿主传给人。MERS曾于2012年在中东暴发，2015年在韩国暴发。截止2019年12月，中东呼吸综合征确诊2,468例，死亡851例，病死率约为34.5%。

It is commonly believed that the MERS virus originated from bats and transmitted to people through dromedaries, the intermediate host. The MERS broke out in Middle East, 2012, and in Korea, 2015. Up till December 2019, the confirmed cases of MERS reached 2,468, and the deaths amounted to 851, with the mortality rate around 34.5%.

对比SARS和MERS，新冠病毒肺炎致死率较低，但是仍高于普通流感。而且新冠病毒的传播速度快，在短期内对引起医疗资源爆炸式的增长需求也值得注意。

2月3日，钟南山院士表示目前确诊病例病死率大概是2.3%-2.4%，因为患者集中，武汉病死率要高于外地。与SARS和MERS相比，新型冠状病毒肺炎病死率相对较低，但仍比普通的流感要高。而大量的无症状潜在病人让新型冠状病毒极为迅速地传播，在短期内可能出现成千上万病患。随之而来的是患者对医护需求的呈爆炸式增长，造成医疗物资、医疗人员和救治场所等医护资源的短缺。

On 3rd February, Prof. Zhong Nanshan reported the death rate of confirmed cases to be roughly 2.3%-2.4% at present, with higher-than-average mortality rate in Wuhan due to denser patient population. Compared with SARS and MERS, the death rate of the novel coronavirus pneumonia is relatively lower, but still higher than that of the normal flu. Moreover, thousands of cases may arise in a short term as the emergence of a number of asymptomatic carriers accelerates the transmission of the virus, followed by a soaring demand for medical care, which leads to the shortage of medical resources including medical supplies, health workers and treatment centers.

新冠肺炎疫情在中国境内逐渐好转，但我们仍然不能掉以轻心，做好自我防护，严防疫情死灰复燃。

目前最有效的防控方法，依然是少出门、戴口罩、勤洗手。如果自己出现发烧或咳嗽症状，一定要在自我隔离的同时，及时进行疫情上报，千万不能抱着侥幸心理四处乱跑。

So far the most effective methods to prevent and control the epidemic remain limiting outdoor activities, wearing masks and washing hands regularly. If you have symptoms of fever or cough, please do report your condition in time while self-quarantining at home, and don’t take any chances to go around.