越南能否在本世纪内在经济上赶上东亚国家？

【来源龙腾网】

评论原创翻译：

GeozIII

Crazy how we used to worry about overpopulation,now we are worried about low fertility rate

疯狂的是我们以前担心人口过剩，现在我们担心低生育率

Psychological_Dish75

I think some expert before has already told us of a population shrink with development, but everyone was so occupied with over-population so we did not take them that seriously back then

我想以前有专家已经告诉我们人口随着发展而减少，但是大家都专注于人口过剩，所以我们当时并没有认真对待他们

abc_abc_abc-

Ehh, underpopulation is not a problem under current global conditions if the country is willing to open the floodgates for immigration. Immigration disproportionately enlarges the tax base with relatively little increased burdens on the social assistance system as foreigners do not enjoy the same entitlements as citizens, effectively making tax contributions of increased population from immigrations demographic free money unlike citizens demographic. In the status quo, most economic growth generated by population growth of citizens demographic is usually a Ponzi scheme as the economic benefit is devoured by current generation and fiscally unsustainable social systems is thrown on the posterity.

呃，如果国家愿意打开移民闸门的话，在当前的全球条件下，人口不足不是问题。移民可以成比例扩大税基，而对社会救助体系的负担相对较小，因为外国人不享有与公民相同的权利，这实际上使得移民人口增加所带来的税收贡献成为与公民人口不同的免费资金。在现状下，大多数由公民人口增长带来的经济增长通常是庞氏骗局，因为经济利益被当代人吞噬，因为经济利益被当代人吞噬，而财政上不可持续的社会制度却被抛给了后代。

Technical_Fee7337

Immigrations don't fix the low fertility problem. As researches shown, after 3 generations, they will adjusted to the same low fertility as the country they live in. Can watch the video called "why Korea is dying out" by Kurzgesagt. Immigration is just a bandaid trying to stop a big stream of water leaking out, not really solve the problem.

移民并不能解决生育率低的问题。研究表明，三代人之后，他们将适应与他们所居住的国家相同的低生育率。可以观看Kurzgesagt的名为“为什么韩国正在消亡”的视频。移民只是试图阻止大量水流渗出的创可贴，并不能真正解决问题。

Desperate-Road-8403

It’s not underpopulated is the problem, it’s the unbalanced age structure, you need a balanced number of young and old people, like China for example, they are having a crisis of too many old people and too few young people. Which means a huge number of pension while too little workers to generate money to provide the pension.

问题不是人口不足，而是年龄结构不平衡，你需要一个平衡的老少人口数量，比如中国，他们正面临着老人太多而年轻人太少的危机。这意味着需要大量的养老金，但却没有足够的劳动力来创造资金来提供养老金。

essaivee

It might happen if they invest more in education, automation and provide more open immigration policies to balance out the brain drain, drive innovation and investments.

They'll also need to eradicate corruption at all levels and ensure at the very least, they can complete infrastructure projects on time without any kerfuffle involving land clearance.

如果他们在教育、自动化方面投入更多，并提供更开放的移民政策，以平衡人才流失、推动创新和投资，就有可能实现这一目标。

他们还需要根除各个层面的腐败现象，并至少确保能够按时完成基础设施项目，而不会出现涉及土地清理的任何麻烦。

PM_ur_tots

I see that brain drain is a serious issue in this country that isn't addressed. Generally speaking, the best vietnamese in every sector leave the country for better opportunities, and I can't blame them. But remittance of foreign salaries only contributes to inflation.

我认为人才流失是这个国家没有解决的一个严重问题。一般来说，各个领域最优秀的越南人都会离开这个国家寻找更好的机会，我不能责怪他们。但是，国外工资的汇款只会助长通货膨胀。

IamOkei

It's like India....Vietnamese likes to go US or Canada

就像印度......越南人喜欢去美国或加拿大

ItsWoeffle

Canada isn't the best place right now. There is HUGE competition all across industries and people are staying jobless. A good job is far-fetched.

加拿大现在不是最好的目的地。各行各业的竞争都非常激烈，人们都在失业。好工作遥不可及。

OverallVacation2324

Yeah the biggest barrier for me is the corruption. I feel like it tarnishes Vietnam’s image to the outside world and stymies true innovation and growth. It makes the people more worried about bribing government officials than growing their business or innovating new ideas. Otherwise I would move to Vietnam and invest there in a heartbeat.

对我来说，最大的障碍就是腐败。我觉得这有损越南在外界心目中的形象，阻碍了真正的创新和发展。它让人们更担心要怎么去贿赂政府官员，而不是发展业务或创新想法。否则，我会立刻搬到越南投资。

circle22woman

Think of it this way, at a 7% grow rate it will take 10 years for the economy to double.

Right now Vietnam GDP per capita is 1/3rd that of Thailand, 1/8th that of Taiwan.

So Vietnam would need to grow a lot before reaching the economic size of other East Asian countries.

这么想吧，以 7% 的增长率计算，经济翻一番需要 10 年的时间。

现在越南的人均 GDP 是泰国的 1/3，台湾（地区）的 1/8。

因此，越南需要大幅增长才能达到其他东亚国家的经济规模。

endeend8

Yeah only way to catch up is to pull a China with a decade or more of high double digit growth then like 2-3 decades of completely uninterrupted high single digit growth. Don’t see Vietnam doing that since most major industries like tech, manufacturing, auto, electronics, chemicals etc are already dominated by well entrenched players and they don’t have metals and oils to pull a Saudi, Brazil or Australia so they would need to invent whole new industries or capture existing.

是的，追赶的唯一方法就是像中国那样保持十年或更长的两位数高增长，然后再保持到三十年完全不间断的个位数高增长。越南做不到这一点，因为大多数主要产业，如科技、制造、汽车、电子、化工等，都已被根深蒂固的企业所垄断，而且他们没有金属和石油，无法像沙特、巴西或澳大利亚那样发展，因此他们需要发明全新的产业或抓住现有的产业。

circle22woman

Agreed.

I mean Vietnam could, but based on the current business enviroment, I don't see it happening.

It could reach the kind of wealth of Thailand (3x GDP per capita Vietnam is now). Which isn't bad at all, it's a middle income country.

同意。

我觉得越南可以，但根据目前的商业环境，我不认为越南能做到这一点。

越南可以达到泰国那样的财富水平（人均 GDP 是越南现在的 3 倍）。这一点也不坏，因为它是一个中等收入国家。

rau-pho

actually there are alway new areas becoming invented. just see AI for reference. this was not a big area 3 year ago and now it is booming.

just be patient and we will capture future industry especially because young generation here grow up on internet so are more connected about oversea markets too.

其实，新的领域总是在不断涌现。作为参考，看看AI。三年前，这还不是一个大领域，而现在它正在蓬勃发展。

只要有耐心，我们就能抓住未来的产业，特别是因为这里的年轻一代都是在互联网上长大的，所以他们也更了解海外市场。

timemaninjail

just to make a counterpoint, every new innovating field, displace more jobs than creating new one. Look at farming, human labour decreases. A.I will be the nail in the coffin for many jobs to come, General A.I will be the new age low-skill job killer, and we know not everyone can just be a skilled programmer.

反过来说，每一个新的创新领域都会取代更多的工作岗位，而不是创造新的工作岗位。看看农业，人类劳动力在减少。人工智能将成为新时代低技术工作的杀手，我们知道，不是每个人都能成为熟练的程序员。

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ITVolleybeachbum

Vietnam has a lot of cash that’s not calculated in the gdp. Its gdp should catch up with Thailand now, let alone 1/3. it’s export triples Thailands.

越南拥有大量未计入国民生产总值的现金。它的 GDP 现在应该赶上泰国了，更不用说是泰国的 1/3。它的出口是泰国的三倍。