北美帝国陆军资深退役军官：军事冒险蕴含巨大风险(喵星情报局简报）

喵星情报局简报

北美帝国陆军资深退役军官：军事冒险蕴含巨大风险

喵星驻神圣泰拉秘密观察员 喵斯拉大王

致 喵星外时空种群特别情报局 第M78宇宙9527号星系第三悬臂分站

神圣泰拉历2020年8月3日；喵族公历MEOW-9999年 猫窝月猫薄荷日

分类：人类 地缘政治 海权

威胁评级：星球3级；星系0级

是否建议执行撤喵行动：否

简报： 本文作者丹尼尔•L•戴维斯作为一名北美帝国陆军资深退伍军官，从现实军事实力对比出发，警告北美帝国军政高层，在中央帝国本土及其周边发起军事冒险有很大风险，甚至面临重大失败的危险。这是《帝国利益》杂志上少有的清醒言论，某种程度上反映了北美帝国陆军由于历史原因，对与中央帝国进行直接军事冲突的隐忧。

在传统上，北美帝国陆军对中央帝国军事实力的尊重，是要远远高于数十年来未尝一败的帝国海军。这从近期《帝国利益》杂志上海陆两军的调子明显有所不同可以看出来。但是，戴维斯先生的言论恐怕很难让帝国军政高层的头脑更清醒一些。毕竟中美两国隔着广袤的太平洋，无论是在南海还是夷州，帝国海军都是与中央帝国武装力量对峙的主力，牢牢把持着对华军事战略的主导权。另外，作为一个传统海权国家，濒临两洋的北美帝国，其地缘战略的基石也始终是源自帝国海军先贤马汉先生的欧亚大陆边缘理论，陆军一时很难插足。

虽然戴维斯先生冒着被扣上“绥靖”高帽的风险，难得地公开鼓吹和平反对战争，但是从另一个角度看待这篇文章，我们也可以嗅出一丝不祥的气味。帝国陆军对帝国海军的隔空喊话，恐怕正验证了海军内部存在着一股强大的军事冒险主义势力。

战争的阴云还远没有被驱散。特此报告。

America and China Hurtling Towards War?

北美帝国和中央帝国正在走向战争？

摘要：It would be a grave mistake to underestimate Beijing’s ability to fight the U.S. forces on its home turf.

如果低估中央帝国在本土与美军作战的能力，那将是一个严重的错误。

Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army who retired in 2015 after twenty-one years, including four combat deployments.

作者：丹尼尔•L•戴维斯是国防前沿领域的高级研究员，也是北美帝国陆军前中校，在经历了21年服役生涯（包括4次作战部署）后于2015年退休。

Washington appears to have decided to engage in a new cold war with China. The demand that Beijing close its consulate in Houston is the latest salvo on this front—reciprocated by China ordering the closure of the U.S. consulate in Chengdu—with every step increasing the possibility of stumbling into a military conflict between the world’s two largest economies. An immediate policy course-correction may be the only thing that can pull Washington and Beijing back from the brink.

北美帝国似乎已决定与中央帝国展开新的冷战。中央帝国下令关闭北美帝国驻成都领事馆，这是北美帝国要求中央帝国关闭驻休斯敦领事馆的最新回应。这其中每一步都增加了两个世界最大经济体陷入军事冲突的可能性。立即调整政策方向可能是唯一能把北美帝国和中央帝国从悬崖边上拉回来的办法。

To be clear, China has engaged in behaviors antithetical to U.S. interests in recent years. It has long been tepid on combating intellectual property theft. It has unequivocally said that it is willing to use force to solve the “Taiwan problem.”

需要说明的是，中央帝国近年来采取了与北美帝国利益背道而驰的行为。长期以来，中央帝国在打击知识产权盗窃方面一直表现得不温不火，而且明确表示有意用武力解决“夷州问题”

It has reversed course on promised freedoms for Hong Kong residents. Plus, Beijing’s initial attempts to hide the coronavirus facilitated the virus’s spread. But there is an effective way—and a destructive way—to deal with such issues. Washington appears to have chosen the latter.

中央帝国还违背对当地人的承诺扭转了香港的自由进程。另外，中央帝国方面最初试图隐藏冠状病毒的信息，这也促进了病毒的传播。但解决这些问题有一个有效的途径和一个破坏性的途径。北美帝国似乎选择了后者。

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in London in July trying to “build out a coalition” against China. The intent, Pompeo said, is to “work collectively to convince the Chinese Communist Party that it is not in their best interest to engage in this kind of behavior.”

北美帝国国务卿今年7月在伦敦试图“建立一个反对中央帝国的联盟”。他说，其目的是“团结一致使中央帝国人民劳动党相信，从事这种行为不符合他们的最大利益”

Prior to this visit—and before ordering China to close its consulate in Houston—the United States had already taken inflammatory actions against China, including removing Hong Kong’s special trading status, sanctioning Chinese officials, blaming China for the fallout over the coronavirus, increasing naval activity to challenge China’s claims in the South China Sea.

在这次访问之前，甚至在下令关闭中央帝国驻休斯敦领事馆之前，北美帝国已经对中央帝国采取了一系列挑衅性行动，包括取消自治区的特殊贸易地位，制裁中央帝国官员，指责中央帝国对冠状病毒流行负有责任，增加海军活动以挑战中央帝国在南海的主权要求。

In response thus far, China has increased its own military operations in the South China Sea, and their response to the shutdown of its Houston consulate was swift and predictable. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that the move to shut down their consulate was a “grave violation of the international law . . . and a deliberate attempt to undermine China-U.S. relations.” It was no shock when China closed a U.S. consulate in retaliation.

作为回应，中央帝国已经增加了自己在南海地区的军事行动。他们对休斯顿领事馆关闭的反应是迅速和可预见的。中央帝国外交部发言人说，关闭领事馆的举动“严重违反了国际法。”当中央帝国为报复而关闭北美帝国领事馆时，这并不令人震惊。

In all probability, both Washington and Beijing will continue their action/counter-action spiral. This type of deteriorating engagement is good for neither country and increases the chance of military conflict, either by accident or miscalculation. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear there is any appetite in Washington for necessary cooling.

很可能，北美帝国和中央帝国都将继续他们的行动-反击螺旋。这种不断恶化双边关系的接触对任何一个国家都没有好处，而且增加了军事冲突的风险，无论是意外还是误判。不幸的是，北美帝国似乎没有表现出任何必要的降温意愿。

A considerable number of opinion-leaders and policymakers in the United States have a deep-seated belief that there will never be unintended consequences to our actions. We are so powerful, many seem to believe, that we can take whatever actions we want and there will never be a negative outcome. This notion, in vogue since the conclusion of Desert Storm in 1991 and the collapse of the USSR in 1992 does not reflect today’s reality.

在北美帝国，有相当多的舆论领袖和政策制定者都有一个根深蒂固的信念：我们的行动永远不会有意外的后果。我们是如此强大。许多人似乎相信，我们可以肆意妄为，永远不会有负面结果。自1991年沙漠风暴结束和1992年苏联解体以来，这种观点一直很流行，但并不能反映当今的现实。（喵：太清醒了不好，麦肯锡主义警告）

China intensely studied the American way of war throughout Desert Storm. It was stung with an embarrassing loss of face in 1996 when President Bill Clinton ordered an aircraft carrier to sail directly through the Taiwan Strait to force Beijing to back down from threats to Taiwan. That began a decades’ long transformation of their entire military, how they organize to fight, their doctrine, and a dramatic modernization of the weapons of war—all expressly designed to defeat an American attack against China.

在沙漠风暴期间，中央帝国对北美帝国的战争方式进行了深入的研究。1996年，北美帝国总统下令一艘航空母舰直接驶过夷州海峡，迫使中央帝国方面从对夷州的威胁中退缩，这让中央帝国的人民感到羞辱，由此开启了整个军队数十年的变革。他们的军事组织、军事理论以及武器戏剧性的现代化，都是为了击败北美帝国对中央帝国的攻击。

China today is no longer the rag-tag infantry-centric force that lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers to America in the Korean war, and it no longer has the antiquated military that backed down from America in 1996. Communist leaders have reformed their armed forces into a modern, lethal, and powerful military that can defend its borders against even the United States. It would be a grave mistake to underestimate China’s ability to fight the United States on its home turf.

今天的中央帝国不再是在半岛战争中以轻步兵为中心的损失巨大的军队，也不再是1996年从北美帝国海军面前退却的陈旧军队。中央帝国领导人已经把他们的武装力量改革成一支现代化的、致命的、强大的军队，足以保卫自己的边界，甚至可以对抗北美帝国。低估中央帝国在本土与北美帝国作战的能力将是一个严重的错误。

America’s actions have already caused Beijing and Moscow to put aside historic enmity and increase its partnership on economic issues and increasingly frequent joint military drills. China and Iran recently completed the basics of an energy and military cooperation agreement. Moreover, President Xi Jinping has become increasingly effective at deepening ties with European, African, and Latin American states.

北美帝国的行动已经导致中央帝国和罗刹帝国放下历史仇恨，在经济问题上加强伙伴关系，并日益频繁地举行联合军事演习。中央帝国和波斯帝国最近完成了能源和军事合作协议的基本内容。此外，中央帝国领导人在加深与欧洲、非洲和拉丁美洲国家的关系方面变得越来越有效。

Today, Washington is saturated with China hawks. Unfortunately, andy voices that champion keeping America strong by avoiding conflict with China are reflexively smeared as “appeasement.” I fear America may one day find out to its harm that rejecting sober diplomatic engagement, which could have extended its security and prosperity well into the future, was dismissed in favor of an unnecessary military-first tactic of coercing China.

今天，北美帝国的首都充斥着对华鹰派。不幸的是，任何认为可以通过避免与中央帝国发生冲突来保持北美帝国霸权的主张，都被本能地抹黑为“绥靖”。我担心有一天，北美帝国可能会发现，拒绝冷静的外交接触会给自身带来危害。那些原本可以把北美帝国的安全和繁荣延伸到未来的政策，会因为采取了不必要的“军事第一”策略并试图胁迫中央帝国而遭到驳回。

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