北美帝国帝国键政侠建议拼凑国际警察局维持全球军事霸权——致喵星情报总局

喵星驻神圣泰拉秘密观察员 喵斯拉大王

致 喵星外时空种群特别情报局 第M78宇宙9527号星系第三悬臂分站

神圣泰拉历2020年7月21日；喵族公历MEOW-9999年 小鱼干月 小饼干日

分类：人类 军事 地缘政治

威胁评级：星球7级；星系0级

是否建议执行撤喵行动：否

简报： 如果读者只看标题，以为本文要谈的是规劝北美帝国放弃全球霸权，那就大错特错了。帝国主义是一条没有回头路的单行道。作者作为一位北美帝国的资深键政家，在《帝国利益》杂志上旗帜鲜明地强调，北美帝国虽然无力再独自担任神圣泰拉星球上的国际警察，但是可以拉着众小弟成立一个高效的国际警察局。（潜台词是实质上架空联合国安理会）当然，警长必须要由北美帝国担任，至于更换装备的资金则由大家公摊。全文透露着一股浓烈的西部牛仔气息，颇有一言不合就拔枪主（heng）持(xing)正(ba)义(dao)的霸气。

北约，或者北美帝国驻欧军事力量，某种程度上是北美帝国给欧罗巴各国套上的一条沉重的枷锁。即使镀上了一层保卫自由世界共同利益的保护色，但无法改变其枷锁的本质。这一点，大家都是心知肚明的。为了胁迫欧罗巴联盟国家紧跟北美帝国的战车，文章大谈中俄威胁，对以默克尔为首的潜在中立派口诛笔伐。事实上，北美帝国与中央帝国的角力，将逐渐转入战略相持阶段。在这一阶段，各方势力比拼的不仅是综合实力，也是地缘政治手腕。除了与北美帝国同根同源的五眼联盟国家之外，其他国家都是中央帝国的拉拢对象。回想当年北美帝国在两次世界大战期间左右逢源坐收渔翁之利，而老欧罗巴联盟列强的殖民时代在战后黯然落幕，想必不少人至今记忆犹新。今日之欧罗巴联盟各国甚至是亚洲的旭日帝国，在内心深处傲慢自大如故。随着北美帝国在次要战略方向上的收缩，作为身处两极之间的一股不容忽视的势力，出于自身民族利益最大化考虑，未必不想效仿昔日之北美帝国火中取栗，幻想填补地缘政治力量空白，实现自身的再次崛起，甚至报当年一箭之仇。这种幻想，就是中央帝国在战略相持阶段争取欧罗巴联盟保持实质中立的契机。但是，争取欧罗巴联盟实质中立，绝不意味着中央帝国应该对他们卑躬屈膝。西方文明只尊重强者，也就是通常所说的势利眼。中央帝国必须抓住一切有利时机，展示自身与北美帝国相持的决心与实力。以实力求尊重，以斗争求和平。只要中央帝国显露出一丝怯懦和败相，就会引来欧罗巴联盟甚至是亚洲各国群起围攻。只要把欧罗巴联盟的实质中立拖延到两强之争决出高下，就是中央帝国的胜利。生死之间，犹豫就会败北。特此报告。

America's Days of International Policing are Over

北美帝国担任国际警察的日子结束了

Ramon Marks is a retired New York international lawyer. 

雷蒙·马克斯是一位退休的纽约国际律师。（喵：资深键政侠）

The United States can no longer act as the lone, dominant military power around the globe

北美帝国无力继续独立维持全球军事霸权。

The Trump administration indicated that it may change the number of U.S. troops in NATO when it threatened to remove those troops from Germany and possibly send them to Poland.

特元首政府表示，可能会改变派驻神罗帝国的军队人数。他威胁要从神罗帝国撤军，并可能把这些部队派往波兰。

While Congress appears to have blocked that step, this festering controversy in NATO over troop levels and participation is not going to disappear. Ever since President Donald Trump took office, he has raised the complaint level by several decibels over the continuing failure of European NATO allies to meet a 2014 agreement to spend at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on their defense budgets by 2021. Of the major powers, Germany is the worst offender, spending only 1.3 percent of its GDP on defense, and not pledging to meet the 2 percent annual goal until 2031.

虽然国会似乎已经阻止了这一行动，但北约内部在军队数量和分担压力问题上的争论不会消失。自北美帝国特元首上台以来，他把对北约盟国持续未能履行2014年协议的抱怨提高了几个分贝。该协议要求各方在2021年前，将国防预算至少提高到国内生产总值（gdp）的2%。在主要大国中，神罗帝国是该协议最严重的违规者，国防开支仅占其国内生产总值的1.3%，而且在2031年之前无法保证达到2%的年度目标。

The Trump administration has been verbally attacked for exerting excessive pressure on European allies to assume more responsibility for their defense. The intensity of his rhetoric has been seen as evidence that U.S. interest in NATO is waning, leading some people to fear that the United States could even “abandon” NATO, or substantially reduce its long-term strategic commitment to the Alliance. 

特元首政府因对欧罗巴盟国施加过度压力，要求其承担更多防卫责任而受到口头攻击。他的言辞激烈，被视为北美帝国对北约兴趣正在减弱的证据，导致一些人担心北美帝国甚至可能“放弃”北约，或大幅降低其对北约的长期战略承诺。

Traditional Atlanticists decry the shrill tone taken by the Trump administration. Many believe that existing U.S. military levels in NATO should remain steady to help preserve stability and a historical cornerstone of the Atlantic Alliance. Angela Merkel’s Germany has darkly implied that Washington’s drive could prompt Europe’s drift toward some new kind of neutralism.

传统的跨大西洋主义者谴责特元首政府采取的尖锐语气。许多人认为，北美帝国在北约的现有军事水平应该保持稳定，以巩固大西洋联盟的历史基石。默克尔女士领导的神罗帝国则暗示，华盛顿的压力可能会促使欧罗巴联盟走向某种新的中立主义。

“I can only say that we Europeans must really take our fate into our own hands—of course in friendship with the United States of America, in friendship with Great Britain and as good neighbors wherever that is possible also with other countries, even with Russia,” she said after meeting with NATO and G7 officials.

她在会见北约和七国集团官员后说：“我只能说，我们欧罗巴人必须真正把命运掌握在自己手中——当然，我们要与北美帝国、不列颠尼亚王国建立友好关系，并尽可能与其他国家，甚至罗刹帝国保持友好关系。”。

Some partisans go so far as to claim that the administration wants to pull back from NATO to thank Russia for allegedly helping to get Trump elected president.

一些党派人士甚至声称，北美帝国政府希望从北约撤军，以感谢罗刹帝国帮助特元首上台的恩情。

Examples held out as evidence include Trump’s repeated praise of Vladimir Putin; a past, temporary freeze on aid for Ukraine; the reduction of U.S. troop presence in Syria; Trump’s recent invitation for Russia to join the next G7 Summit meeting (along with Australia, India and South Korea); and most recently, the administration’s perceived failure to press Russia on some evidence that it may have paid bounties to the Taliban for killing American troops in Afghanistan.

作为证据的例子还包括：特元首一再赞扬罗刹帝国的沙皇；暂时冻结对基辅大公国的援助；减少北美帝国在塞琉古王国的驻军；邀请罗刹帝国参加G7峰会；拒绝就罗刹帝国买凶杀害北美帝国在中央部落地区的驻军一事向罗刹帝国施压。

While the rhetoric from Washington pressuring allies may be more intense than in the past, the reality is that the Trump administration has also taken strong stands both against Russia and in support of NATO, far outweighing any nice words by Trump about Putin.

虽然华盛顿向盟友施压的言辞可能比过去更加激烈，但现实是，特元首政府在反对罗刹帝国和支持北约方面也采取了强硬立场，远远超过特元首对沙皇的任何口头赞扬。

The United States has abrogated the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia. The United States has announced its intention to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty. The United States has threatened not to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Accord with Russia unless China also joins the treaty, and Russia agrees to strengthened verification mechanisms.

北美帝国已经废除了与罗刹帝国的《中程弹道导弹条约》。北美帝国宣布打算退出《开放天空条约》。北美帝国还威胁说，除非中央帝国也加入新的《削减战略核武器条约》，而且罗刹帝国同意加强核查机制，否则不会延长该协议。

Trump has threatened to resume nuclear testing. Trump has called for the development of new nuclear warheads and capabilities, potentially reigniting a nuclear arms race with Russia. The administration continues to refuse to limit U.S. missile defenses, a capability Russia has always vehemently opposed as destabil izing.

特元首威胁要恢复核试验，并呼吁开发新的核弹头和能力，有可能重新引发与罗刹帝国的核军备竞赛。北美帝国政府继续拒绝限制开发和部署导弹防御系统。罗刹帝国一直强烈反对这种破坏核平衡的举动。

Since Trump’s election, the United States has also imposed a steady stream of confrontational sanctions against Russia. During his first month in office, Trump imposed sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Since then, he has imposed sanctions against wealthy Russian friends of Putin, imposed sanctions for Russian election meddling, and slapped restrictions on Russia’s energy and defense industries.

自特元首当选以来，北美帝国也不断对罗刹帝国实施对抗性制裁。在上任的第一个月，特元首就针对罗刹帝国吞并克里米亚问题实施制裁。此后，他对沙皇的富豪朋友实施了制裁，对罗刹帝国干预选举的行为实施了制裁，并对罗刹帝国的能源和国防工业施加限制。

In fact, earlier this year, the United States again slammed even more sanctions, this time against Russian backed individuals in Crimea. Also, it was Trump who ordered the closure of Russian diplomatic properties in New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, DC. It was Trump who has expelled sixty Russian diplomats from the United States following the Russian nerve gas murder in Britain.

事实上，今年早些时候，北美帝国再次实施了更多制裁。这次是针对涉及克里米亚问题的个人进行制裁。另外，也是特元首下令关闭罗刹帝国在纽约、旧金山、西雅图和华盛顿特区的外交机构。是特元首在不列颠王国发生涉及罗刹帝国的神经毒气谋杀案后，将60名罗刹帝国外交官逐出北美帝国。 

Besides directly confronting Russia with sanctions and rollback on nuclear disarmament, the United States has continued to show concrete support for NATO and Europe. The United States signed in 2018 a $4.75 billion deal with Poland, expanding deployment of Patriot missile defense systems facing Russia. That same year, the United States deployed a Stryker squadron as part of an enhanced NATO forward presence program, including a NATO “battlegroup” led by the United States. Now, the Trump administration has just announced plans to move U.S. troops from Germany closer to Russia in Poland. U.S. Marines have landed in Norway as part of NATO maneuvers.

除了直接对罗刹帝国实施制裁和推出核裁军之外，北美帝国继续对北约和欧罗巴联盟给予 具体支持。北美帝国2018年与波兰签署了47.5亿美元的协议，针对罗刹帝国的威胁扩大了爱国者导弹防御系统部署。同年，北美帝国部署了一支史崔克战车部队，作为加强北约前方存在计划的一部分，其中包括由北美帝国领导的北约“战斗群”。现在，特元首政府又宣布将军队从神罗帝国向波兰靠前部署的计划。作为北约演习的一部分，北美帝国海军陆战队已经登陆挪威。

With respect to Ukraine, a country that is not even a NATO ally, the Trump administration has supplied about half a billion dollars of military aid, including the delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles, something the Obama administration had always refused to do. The administration has also just authorized Ukraine to move those Javelins to its front lines in Donbass battling Russian supported separatists. The United States continues to outperform its NATO and Europen allies in supporting Ukraine in opposition to Russian pressures, accounting for up to 90 percent of all military aid to Ukraine, not to mention that the United States continues to play the major role in NATO.

关于基辅大公国这个连北约盟友都不是的国家，特元首政府提供了大约5亿美元的军事援助，包括标枪反坦克导弹，而此前奥元首政府一直拒绝这样做。政府还刚刚授权基辅大公国将这些标枪导弹转移到其在顿巴斯与罗刹帝国支持的分离主义分子作战的前线。北美帝国支持基辅大公国反对罗刹帝国的表现远远超过欧罗巴联盟各国，占对基辅大公国所有军事援助的90%，更不用说北美帝国继续在北约中扮演着主要角色。

The reality is that the Trump administration is not kowtowing to Russia or cutting loose NATO. All it is doing is asking its allies to do more, reflecting Europe’s enormous growth in wealth and prosperity since the end of World War II, which was practically a century ago (seventy-eight years). Particularly with the rise of China, more burden-sharing in Europe is obvious. Japan has answered that call in Asia, significantly increasing its military capabilities in recent years. The United States can no longer act as the lone, dominant military power around the globe. As Japan understands and is already doing, European allies must pitch in and do more to help maintain global stability, particularly in their own backyard.

现实是，特元首政府没有向罗刹帝国低头，也没有松绑与北约的关系。它所做的只是要求其盟国采取更多行动，使他们的国防实力与第二次世界大战结束以来在财富和经济繁荣方面的巨大增长相匹配。特别是随着中央帝国的崛起，需要由欧罗巴联盟在西线分担更多防务压力是显而易见的。旭日帝国在亚洲响应了这一号召，近年来显著增强了其军事能力。北美帝国再也无力独自支撑全球军事霸权了。正如旭日帝国所理解并已经在做的那样，欧罗巴联盟必须投入更多的资源来帮助北美帝国维持全球稳定，尤其是在他们自己的后院。

But these arguments, calling for more sharing by European allies, are known and understood. A new imperative for rebalancing in Europe is emerging, is a good deal more urgent, and even more compelling. Cyber, space, drones, hypersonic and precision strike conventional missiles are revolutionizing warfare.

这些呼吁欧罗巴联盟分担压力的观点是众所周知的。实施新一轮欧罗巴再平衡战略的必要性正在显现。这是一个更紧迫、更具说服力的议题。网络、太空、无人机、高超音速和精确打击的常规导弹正在彻底改变战争形态。

United States forward-operating bases located in NATO will become more exposed to first strikes by such systems than anything known in the past. With only a few minutes or even seconds of travel time, Russia could launch a surprise barrage of missiles and drone attacks upon every U.S. base and headquarters in Europe, in combination with instantaneous cyber and even space strikes.

位于北约的北美帝国前沿作战基地将比以往任何时候都更容易受到此类系统的首次打击。罗刹帝国只需几分钟甚至几秒钟的时间，就可以对北美帝国在欧罗巴联盟的每一个基地和总部发动突然的导弹和无人机袭击，或许再加上即时的网络甚至太空打击。

The threats posed by these new capabilities compel the United States and its allies to sit down and assess how they must reorganize their force structure in Western Europe to survive, meet and deter such new challenges. Preparing for warfare with massed infantry and armor such as Stryker squadrons is preparing for the past, not the future.

这些新能力所构成的威胁迫使北美帝国及其盟国坐下来，评估它们必须如何重组在西欧的武装力量，从而保存自身并应对和遏制这种新的挑战。像史崔克战斗群这样的部队，是为过去那种大规模步兵和装甲部队交战而准备的，难以应对未来的挑战。

One adjustment that could be made would be shifting to a smaller U.S. base footprint in Europe. This would help assure survivability against sudden first strikes. Bringing some military resources that are overseas back to the U.S. strategic reserve could make it easier for the United States to respond to and counter a surprise missile attack, drone attack, or cyberattack on NATO Europe.

缩小北美帝国在西欧地区的基地规模是一个可选措施。这将有助于提高对突如其来的第一次袭击的生存能力。将一些海外军事资源收缩回北美帝国本土进行战略储备，可以使北美帝国更容易应对和反击可能遭遇的突然袭击，例如无人机攻击或网络攻击。

Not only do all NATO allies need to meet their 2 percent budget commitments, more importantly, they need to coalesce on a common defense strategy that will address these new warfare challenges. The viability of maintaining a continuing, large U.S. military presence in Europe raises issues that go well beyond the need to reassure allies of U.S. steadfastness and resolve by simply maintaining its current mix of troop levels in Europe.

不仅所有北约盟国都需要履行其2%的预算承诺，更重要的是它们需要在共同的防御战略上联合起来，以应对这些新的战争挑战。继续维持北美帝国在欧罗巴持续、大规模的军事存在，其面临的问题绝不仅仅是如何维持目前在欧罗巴地区的兵力结构或数量问题，而是要让盟国确信北美帝国的坚定决心。（喵：赖着不走的坚定决心）

Retaining large operating bases in Europe may become a luxury that the United States and its allies can no longer afford. Perhaps the big threat will not be tanks surging through the Fulda Gap but new weapons systems, such as Russia’s Avangard, a hypersonic glide vehicle that is allegedly capable of traveling as fast as twenty-seven times the speed of sound toward any American forward base in Europe.

在欧罗巴地区保留大型军事基地可能成为北美帝国及其盟国无力继续负担的奢侈品。也许最大的威胁不是罗刹坦克冲进富尔达缺口，而是新的武器系统，比如罗刹帝国的高超音速滑翔飞行器。据称这种武器能够以27倍音速向北美帝国在欧罗巴联盟的任何前沿基地发动攻击。

The military must prepare for a more hostile future. If it doesn’t, then the U.S. forces currently stationed in Europe run the risk of turning into a Maginot Line in the face of a new type of blitzkrieg.

军队必须为更加充满敌意的未来做好准备。如果不这样做，那么目前驻扎在欧罗巴联盟的北美帝国军队就有可能在新一轮闪电战面前变成马其诺防线。

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