“外媒论中国”第28期｜要双边，也要多边

01

特朗普挑起的贸易战，中国赢了

原标题：China is winning the trade war Trump started

发布机构：华盛顿邮报（The Washington Post）

关键词：中美关系；贸易战

中文

《华盛顿邮报》发布的评论文章《特朗普挑起的贸易战，中国赢了》指出，特朗普对中国发起的贸易战不仅没有达到预期目标，反而削弱了美国自身实力，让中国更加强大。尽管特朗普言辞激烈，但始终未能迫使中国作出实质性让步。2025年上半年，中国经济增长达到5.3%，而美国仅为1.25%。双方经过一轮关税交锋后做出退让，最终只是达成了降税的“停战协议”，却没有带来实质性战略收益。

与此同时，特朗普还批准向中国出口英伟达的先进AI芯片，引发美国国内安全专家的不满。这些芯片具有军事潜力，而这项交易被视为削弱美国科技优势的危险信号。与此同时，特朗普又对印度、日本、韩国等重要盟友加征高额关税，动摇了本应联合遏制中国的地区合作框架。

2025年4月17日晚，中国国务院副总理何立峰会见英伟达总裁黄仁勋（图源：央视截图）

在贸易之外，特朗普大幅削减外交、对外援助和科研经费，给中国提供了增加影响力的空间。他还收紧对外国留学生的政策，限制科技领域的投入，而中国正在这些关键技术领域持续加码，逐步缩小与美国的差距。

全球范围内，美国形象也在下滑。皮尤研究中心的一项调查显示，美国的国际好感度显著下降，而中国的评价则略有上升，两者差距不断拉近。尽管暂停贸易战在短期内有助于缓解经济压力，但文章指出，特朗普的整体战略——孤立主义、政策反复、削弱盟友关系——正在帮助中国增强影响力，反而削弱了美国的全球领导地位。

Short Summary

A commentary published by The Washington Post entitled “China is winning the trade war Trump started” argues that Donald Trump’s trade war with China has backfired, weakening the U.S. while allowing China to grow stronger. Despite bold rhetoric, Trump failed to secure major concessions. China’s economy grew 5.3% in early 2025 versus America’s 1.25%. After an initial tariff standoff, both sides backed down, settling on reduced tariffs—a truce with little strategic gain.

At the same time, Trump approved the sale of sensitive Nvidia AI chips to China, drawing criticism from national security experts. Meanwhile, he has alienated key allies like India, Japan, and South Korea with steep tariffs, undermining regional coalitions meant to counter China’s influence.

Beyond trade, Trump’s cuts to diplomacy, foreign aid, and scientific research have left power vacuums China is now filling. Efforts to restrict foreign students and reduce R&D investment risk ceding America’s technological edge in fields where China is rapidly advancing.

Globally, America’s image is slipping. A Pew survey shows declining favorability for the U.S., with China closing the perception gap. While ending the tariff war may limit short-term damage, the article contends that Trump’s broader strategy—marked by isolationism, erratic policy, and weakened alliances—is ultimately empowering China and undermining U.S. global leadership.

02

中国制造商考虑重新转向东南亚

原标题：Chinese manufacturers rethink south-east Asia pivot after Donald Trump’s tariffs

发布机构：金融时报（Financial Times）

关键词：中美关系；产业转移；东南亚

中文

近期，美国对东南亚国家加征10%-40%不等的关税，并出台新规打击中国商品“转运”行为，使亚洲供应链面临重大调整。《金融时报》发布的评论文章《中国制造商考虑重新转向东南亚》指出，这一政策变化迫使中国出口商重新评估海外投资策略，部分企业甚至考虑回归中国生产。

过去几年，为规避特朗普政府对华高额关税，中国制造商向东南亚投资数十亿美元，推行“中国+1”战略。然而，美国最新关税政策大幅削弱了这一战略的吸引力。尽管东南亚关税仍低于中国（30%），但利润空间被压缩，企业转移生产的动力减弱。牛津经济研究院指出，部分企业可能转向更远地区建厂，但高昂的初期成本使许多企业仍倾向于留在中国。

中国东部江苏省的一家碳纤维工厂（图源：法新社/Getty Images）

企业陷入两难境地，中国制造商面临巨大不确定性。例如，闽源鞋业在柬埔寨扩建工厂后，美国客户因新关税政策而暂缓下单。龙源采购公司的首席执行官理查德·洛布表示，美国买家从最初的“恐慌性寻找替代供应商”转为观望，许多客户选择继续从中国采购，等待政策明朗化。

东南亚内部竞争加剧，不同国家的关税差异改变了区域竞争格局。例如，柬埔寨工厂因19%的关税仍略优于中国，但与越南（20%关税）的竞争更加激烈。部分企业如温尼伍德公司考虑将生产转移至印尼，但面临零部件运输成本上升和转运关税的双重压力，导致整体优势下降。

中国部分产业仍具不可替代性。在高技术领域（如高端纺织品），中国的主导地位难以撼动，因东南亚国家无法匹配其生产能力。此外，一些曾迁往越南的企业因成本上升（如土地、劳动力效率）和关税增加而后悔，部分低附加值商品的中国生产商甚至未受显著影响。

Short Summary

Recent U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 40% on Southeast Asian countries, coupled with new restrictions targeting the "transshipment" of Chinese goods, have triggered a major realignment in Asia's supply chains. A commentary  published by The Financial Times titled "Chinese manufacturers rethink south-east Asia pivot after Donald Trump’s tariffs" pointed out that this policy shift has forced Chinese exporters to reassess their overseas investment strategies, with some even considering a return to domestic production.

In recent years, Chinese manufacturers poured billions of dollars into Southeast Asia as part of the "China plus one" strategy to mitigate the impact of the Trump administration's steep tariffs on Chinese goods. However, the latest U.S. tariff measures have significantly eroded the appeal of this strategy. Although tariffs in Southeast Asia remain lower than those on Chinese goods (30%), shrinking profit margins have weakened incentives for relocating production. According to Oxford Economics, while some firms may explore manufacturing bases farther afield, the prohibitively high upfront costs are likely to keep many anchored in China.

Manufacturers now face a dilemma, grappling with heightened uncertainty. For instance, Minyuan Footwear, which expanded its operations in Cambodia this year, has seen U.S. customers delay orders due to the new tariff policies. Richard Laub, CEO of Dragon Sourcing, noted that the initial "panic-driven scramble" among U.S. buyers to secure alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia has subsided, with many opting to continue sourcing from China until “the dust settles”.

Competition within Southeast Asia has intensified as tariff disparities reshape regional dynamics. For example, Cambodia’s 19% tariff rate still offers a slight edge over China, but its producers now face fiercer competition from Vietnam (20% tariffs). Companies like Wynnewood Corp are exploring shifts to Indonesia but confront a "double whammy" of rising component shipping costs and transshipment tariffs, undercutting the overall advantage.

China retains irreplaceable dominance in certain sectors. In high-tech industries like premium textiles, few Southeast Asian nations can match China’s technical capabilities. Meanwhile, some manufacturers that relocated to Vietnam regret their decision due to soaring property costs, inefficient labor, and additional tariffs. Notably, Chinese producers of low-value-added goods report minimal impact, with some even noting unchanged U.S. demand.

03

中国关注美俄领导人会晤，观察西方对乌克兰立场

原标题：China eyes Trump-Putin meeting, gauges West’s resolve on Ukraine

发布机构：福克斯新闻（Fox News）

关键词：美俄领导人会晤；乌克兰危机；和平解决

中文

在阿拉斯加举行的美俄领导人会晤引发国际社会高度关注。福克斯新闻发布的评论文章《中国关注美俄领导人会晤，观察西方对乌克兰立场》指出，中国正密切观察这场对话的进程及其可能释放的信号，尤其关注美俄是否会出现“交易优于威慑”的趋势。一旦特朗普在关键矿产等领域与俄罗斯达成合作，而乌克兰局势却未见实质缓和，这将被视为美国更看重经贸交易而非战略约束，从而影响盟友对美方承诺的信任。

8月15日，美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京在阿拉斯加最大城市安克雷奇的埃尔门多夫－理查森联合基地会面，商讨结束俄乌冲突事宜，并握手致意（图源：路透社）

此外，乌克兰总统泽连斯基缺席峰会，也被视作一个重要信号。如果大国在处理冲突时绕过直接相关国家进行磋商，中国可能会将此视为国际社会在某些情况下寻求和平解决的尝试，因为这与其自身倡导的多极化和大国协商模式的理念相契合，也为其观察国际格局、评估大国互动提供参考。

文章认为，中国不会直接介入美俄对话，但会把它作为战略观察窗口，衡量美国在处理地区冲突时的底线和优先级。这一进程对未来亚太安全格局和中国自身政策选择，具有重要参考意义。

Short Summary

Recently, the U.S.-Russia leaders’ meeting in Alaska has drawn widespread international attention. A cmmentary posted by Fox News titled "China eyes Trump-Putin meeting, gauges West’s resolve on Ukraine" noted that China is closely observing the progress of the talks and the potential strategic signals, particularly whether the U.S. and Russia might prioritize “deals over deterrence.” If Trump reaches agreements with Russia on critical minerals while the situation in Ukraine sees no substantial easing, this could be interpreted as the U.S. valuing economic transactions over strategic constraints, potentially affecting allies’ trust in U.S. commitments.

In addition, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s absence from the summit is seen as a significant signal. From Beijing’s perspective, when major powers negotiate conflicts without directly involving the concerned parties, it may be regarded as an attempt by the international community to seek peaceful solutions in certain circumstances. This aligns with China’s advocacy of a multipolar world and major-power consultation, providing Beijing with valuable reference for observing the international landscape and assessing the interactions of major powers.

Overall, China is not directly involved in the U.S.-Russia dialogue but treats it as a strategic observation window to gauge U.S. thresholds and priorities in handling regional conflicts. The outcome of this process holds important implications for the future security landscape in the Asia-Pacific region and for China’s own policy choices.

04

这会是中美友谊的开端吗？

原标题：Is this the start of a U.S.-China friendship?

发布机构：外交政策（Foreign Policy）

关键词：中美关系

中文

七月底在斯德哥尔摩举行的中美高级官员会晤，标志着两国关系朝更加稳定的方向迈出关键一步。《外交政策》近期发表题为《这会是中美友谊的开端吗？》的文章指出，此次经贸会谈或将为中美领导人之后的会晤奠定坚实基础。文章认为，中美双方有望在关税问题上取得进展，并推动在制造业、能源、禁毒等领域的深层次合作，同时在TikTok问题与双边贸易平衡方面亦可能迎来突破。

相互依存的经济仍是推动中美关系修复的关键动力之一。特朗普政府已经意识到，中美产业链深度嵌套，强行脱钩的做法只会带来对关键行业的扰动和一系列意料之外的后果。例如，中国暂停稀土出口便暴露出美国在相关领域对华高度依赖。特朗普随后对相关政策进行了调整，包括放宽对华芯片出口限制、重新授权与中企商业往来，说明其逐渐认识到，相较于对抗，合作才是维系美国经济稳定的必要之举。

当地时间7月28至29日，中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行（图源：法新社）

种种迹象表明，如果中美领导人能顺利举行会晤，或将开启一个更加周全、相互尊重的中美关系新阶段，双方将深化互动，共同致力于破除冷战思维。

Short Summary

The recent meeting in Stockholm between U.S. and Chinese high-level officials marked a crucial step toward a more stable U.S.-China relations. A recent article published by Foreign Policy titled "Is this the start of a U.S.-China friendship?" suggested that this meeting could lay a solid foundation for the upcoming meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders. The author expects that this meeting may boost progress not only on tariffs, but also deeper cooperation in manufacturing, energy, and drug control, alongside possible breakthroughs on the TikTok issue and bilateral trade balance.

Economic interdependence is one of the key driving force to restore the relationship. The Trump administration has come to realize that U.S. and Chinese supply chains are deeply intertwined, and attempts to force decoupling have thus far only disrupted key industries and triggered unintended consequences, such as China's suspension of rare-earth exports, which exposed the U.S.' vulnerabilities in such area. Trump's subsequent policy adjustments, including easing chip restrictions and reauthorising business with China, reflect a recognition that cooperation, rather than confrontation, which is 

essential for U.S. economic stability.

Various signs suggest that if the Chinese and U.S. leaders can successfully hold a meeting, it could mark the beginning of a more comprehensive and mutually respectful phase in China–U.S. relations, with both sides deepening interactions and working together to overcome Cold War–style thinking.

05

中国若不再正眼看欧洲，纯属布鲁塞尔咎由自取

原标题：If China no longer takes Europe seriously, Brussels has itself to blame

发布机构：南华早报（South China Morning Post）

关键词：中欧关系

中文

《南华早报》发布的评论文章《中国若不再正眼看欧洲，纯属布鲁塞尔咎由自取》指出，欧盟因其对华政策摇摆不定、对美国日益增长的军事与经济依赖，已在大国竞争中将自身边缘化，沦为无足轻重的角色。文章分析了欧盟对地缘政治的误判，及其在强权现实政治中节节败退，从而被特朗普政府利用，最终不得不脱下“战略自主”的伪装。

7月24日，欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔在第25届中欧峰会上进行开幕致辞（图源：路透社）

7月24日举行的中欧峰会成果有限，双方仅达成一项稀土协议，并未在核心议题上作出重大让步。与此同时，特朗普通过人为制造“离间计”，使欧洲暴露出无法在意识形态和经济需求之间进行抉择的问题。在此种困境中，欧盟对地缘现实做出了误判：一方面加大了对跨大西洋联盟的军事依赖，同意到2035年将军费开支提高至GDP的5%；另一方面对华实施选择性施压，要求中国改变对俄关系，却不提出任何自己的外交倡议。

可见，欧盟陷入自相矛盾的局面：尽管将乌克兰危机定义为“生存冲突”，却仍在2024年向俄支付230亿欧元的能源费用；尽管将美国视为可靠伙伴，却无视其持续的经济威胁、强制武器购买和外交上的轻视；在低估中国的同时，却依赖中国的原材料、关键工业投入以及绿色和数字技术供应链。由此，欧洲地缘政治影响力开始逐渐下降，其对华战略也呈现出收缩之势。

Short Summary

A commentary published by South China Morning Post titled "If China no longer takes Europe seriously, Brussels has itself to blame" pointed out that the EU has marginalized itself in great power competition due to its wavering China policy and growing military and economic dependence on the United States, becoming an insignificant player. The article analyzes the EU’s misjudgment of geopolitical realities and its successive setbacks in hard-nosed power politics, which have been exploited by the Trump administration, ultimately forcing the EU to shed the facade of “strategic autonomy.”

On July 24, the China–EU summit yielded limited results, with the two sides reaching only a rare earth agreement and making no substantial concessions on core issues. Meanwhile, through deliberately engineering a "divide-and-rule" tactic, Donald Trump exposed Europe's inability to reconcile its ideological stance with its economic needs. In this predicament, the EU has misjudged geopolitical realities: on the one hand, it has deepened its military dependence on the transatlantic alliance, agreeing to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035; on the other hand, it has applied selective pressure on China, demanding that Beijing alter its relations with Russia without putting forward any diplomatic initiative of its own.

Thus, the EU has fallen into a contradictory position: while defining the Ukraine crisis as an "existential conflict", it still paid €23 billion to Russia for energy in 2024; while regarding the United States as a reliable partner, it turns a blind eye to Washington's persistent economic threats, forced arms sales, and diplomatic condescension; while underestimating China, it remains dependent on Chinese raw materials, key industrial inputs, and green and digital technology supply chains. As a result, Europe's geopolitical influence has begun to decline, and its China strategy is showing signs of contraction.

06

莫迪若出席上合组织峰会，将传递什么信息

原标题：What message will Modi take if he attends the SCO Summit in China?

发布机构：洛伊研究所（Lowy Institute）

关键词：上合组织峰会

中文

洛伊研究所近日发布的评论文章《莫迪若出席上合组织峰会，将传递什么信息》认为，印度总理莫迪预计将在本月下旬亲赴中国出席上海合作组织领导人峰会，这也将是他自2020年加勒万河谷冲突以来首次访问中国。此次访问不仅被视为中印关系出现缓和的重要信号，也是在长期积累的结构性矛盾之下迈出的谨慎一步。过去五年，中印在实际控制线（LAC）、水文数据共享和贸易壁垒等问题上摩擦不断。尽管印度外长苏杰生近日访华并与中方高层沟通，为莫迪此行铺路，但双方在跨境恐怖主义和地区安全认知等核心议题上分歧依旧深刻。

对印度而言，此次出席不仅体现了其对上合组织机制的重视，也契合其多元外交战略。在西方盟友因印度进口俄油而持续施压、特朗普政府对印加征关税的背景下，适度改善与中国的关系，有助于印度在大国竞争中保留战略回旋空间。随着印度将在2026年接任金砖国家主席国，莫迪希望借助此次会面与中国、俄罗斯巩固政治互信，为推动“以人为本”的金砖合作议程奠定基础。

7月24日，欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔在第25届中欧峰会上进行开幕致辞（图源：路透社）

然而，印度在本届峰会的核心诉求——在上合组织框架内就跨境恐怖主义达成共识——很可能遭遇阻力。中国在相关议题上的态度被印度批评为“口惠而实不至”，而伊朗在地区安全问题上亦未与印度保持一致。加之巴基斯坦总理谢里夫也将出席，莫迪预计会在会上强硬表态，强调恐怖主义是上合组织的创始关切，并直指跨境威胁的现实与紧迫。

从更宏观的地缘政治视角看，莫迪此行既是对多边外交平台的灵活运用，也是对国内民族主义舆论与国际大国身份叙事的回应。即使在实质议题上难有突破，中印高层在上合组织框架下的同台亮相，仍将向外界释放“可控竞争、有限合作”的信号。印度力图借此塑造自身“世界之友”的形象，在分裂的国际格局中争取更大的话语权与战略筹码。此次峰会，既是印度多线并进外交的缩影，也是莫迪在战略自主与现实利益之间的一次精心试探。

Short Summary

A commentary recently published by Lowy Institute titled "What message will Modi take if he attends the SCO Summit in China?" noted that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to travel to China later this month to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders’ summit. It would be his first visit to China since the deadly Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, and is widely viewed as a sign of tentative rapprochement after years of strain—though deep structural frictions remain. Over the past five years, New Delhi and Beijing have been at odds over the Line of Actual Control (LAC), hydrological data sharing, and trade restrictions. While External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s recent trip to Beijing, including meetings with Chinese President and Foreign Minister, helped set the stage for Modi’s participation, fundamental disagreements on cross-border terrorism and regional security continue to run deep.

For India, Modi’s presence at the summit signals both the weight it places on the SCO and its broader strategy of diversified engagement. At a time when Western partners are turning up the pressure over Russian oil imports and the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Indian goods, a measured easing of tensions with China could give New Delhi valuable room to manoeuvre in a crowded geopolitical field. Looking ahead to India’s assumption of the BRICS chairmanship in 2026, Modi is also keen to use this moment to reinforce political trust with Beijing and Moscow, laying the groundwork for his “humanity first” vision for BRICS.

Yet New Delhi’s primary goal for this summit—securing an SCO-wide consensus on cross-border terrorism—is unlikely to be achieved. Beijing’s stance has drawn Indian criticism as rhetorical rather than substantive, while Tehran’s position on regional security does not fully align with India’s. The anticipated presence of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will add a layer of political complexity. Modi is expected to speak forcefully, underscoring that counterterrorism is a founding principle of the SCO and highlighting the urgency of confronting cross-border threats head-on.

Viewed in a wider strategic context, the visit is as much about maximising the utility of multilateral platforms as it is about addressing domestic nationalist expectations and sustaining India’s image as a major power. Even if it produces few concrete outcomes, a China-India encounter on the SCO stage would send a message that competition can be kept within bounds and cooperation, however limited, remains possible. In doing so, Modi will seek to project India as a “Vishwabandhu” – a friend to all – while expanding its influence and strategic options in an increasingly fragmented global order. The summit will thus stand as both a snapshot of India’s multi-vector diplomacy and a calculated exercise in balancing strategic autonomy with pragmatic interests.