【科技】小米进军中国电动汽车竞赛

【来源龙腾网】

正文原创翻译：

【小米进军中国电动汽车竞赛】

xiaomi Corp.’s (1810.HK) brief life story is closely intertwined with its charismatic founder and CEO Lei Jun, who was a telecoms layman when he launched the company that would go on to become one of China’s and the world’s biggest smartphone makers. But can he pull it off again with new energy vehicles (NEV)?

有看过《一往无前》这本书，就知道小米集团(1810.HK)的热血十年，雷军从一个手机外行人，怎样将小米攀上销售巅峰，今天他是否要在新能源车上，复制其成功模式?

Lei certainly thinks so, and is pumping huge resources into the space as part of his bigger vision of building a xiaomi ecosystem of smart devices that can communicate with each other and their owners in a future world often called the internet of things (IoT).

雷军当然希望，并投入大量资源在汽车领域，通过智能设备而在物联网中相互通信，作为构建小米智能生态系统更大愿景的一部分。

原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Lei unveiled the latest piece in that ecosystem just before the end of last year with xioami’s demonstration of its first NEV, the eye-catching SU7, which some likened to a mix of Porsche’s Taycan and a composite of Tesla’s style. Lei emphasized repeatedly the SU7 won’t be aimed at NEV users looking to save a buck, noting it would be “impossible” to price such a model at 99,000 yuan ($13,961) or even 149,000 yuan. “Please show some respect for all the technologies we’ve invested in,” he told the crowd, responding to repeated questions about the pricing.

去年底的小米汽车发布会上，雷军展示小米第一部电动车SU7，外型教人眼前一亮，虽然有人指它像保时捷的Taycan与特斯拉的混合体，但其颜值确实超爆，所有设备及技术也是高端，难怪雷军一再强调：“不要喊9万9了，不可能的！”但市场总聚焦在价格上，雷军只好补充：“14万9也不用再讲了，还是要尊重一下科技。”

Such response indicates that xiaomi will no longer adopt an “affordability first” strategy with its new NEV foray, unlike its smartphones which rose to early prominence on their low prices. Now, it will be up to the market to decide what to make of the SU7 when it officially hits China’s crowded NEV market this year.

言下之意，小米汽车难再走超平路线，至于是否雷军向市场做了价格期望，到时又以低价去抢市场，一切要在今年SU7正式推出后才揭晓。

Aiming high for the global top five

要成全球五大车厂

Despite xiaomi’s late arrival to NEVs, Lei said his company would spare no expense to catch its competitors, some with a decade or more of experience. “We’ll put in 10 times more effort, starting with the basics and working our way up to build a good car with craftsmanship,” he said. “We aim to become one of the world’s top five automakers in 15 to 20 years.”

雷军在发布会上的豪言壮语，展现了无比决心。汽车行业已经过百多年发展，要在赛道上竞跑并无捷径，他许下承诺：“以十倍努力去投入，从底层核心技术做起，认认真真造一辆好车，经过15 年到 20 年的努力，成为全球前五的汽车厂商，为中国汽车工业全面崛起而奋斗。”

Markets were less impressed with the highly hyped and widely anticipated debut. xiaomi’s stock sank steadily throughout the launch day, ending down 4% at HK$15.28 for the day. Does that mean investors are bearish on its NEV gambit? We personally don’t have a crystal ball to answer that question directly, though company and broader market conditions may offer some clues.

雷军的演说激动人心，但事实又另一回事，特别是投资市场，似乎并不买账，发布会当天股价不升反跌，一度跌近2%，翌日跌势未止，收盘跌逾4%，报15.28港元，是否意味大家不看好其发展前景？我们没有水晶球，最终小米汽车能否跑出尚属未知之素，但可以尝试从大环境及公司层面去探讨分析。

It’s no secret that China’s NEV market is already quite crowded with established giants like Tesla and BYD, alongside newcomers like Nio, XPeng, Li Auto Inc. and Leapmotor. As a latecomer, xiaomi will need to work extra hard to attract attention. What’s more, China’s NEV market, which accounts for more than half of global sales, may be slowing down after several years of rapid growth.

先说整体市场，新能源车这条赛道强手云集，国外有特斯拉，国内有比亚迪(1211.HK; 002594.SZ)，加上“蔚小理”及零跑(9863.HK)等几家造车新势力，竞争已十分白热化，市场都质疑小米这个后来者如何突围而出，稍有差池，随时走上败亡之路。而且，新能源车经过这几年的急速增长，市场或许会放缓下来。

Rise of NEVs

电车市场方兴未艾

Spurred by the global drive for reduced carbon emissions, NEVs are expected to gradually replace traditional gasoline-powered vehicles over the next decade. And with penetration rates still relatively low, there is plenty of room for new players.

从近年全球对减碳排放的要求，以及近年各地对新能源车的布局，可以预计未来的世界，新能源车会逐渐取代汽油为燃料的车辆，问题只是时间，因此对于市场饱和这一点，暂时似乎不用太担心。

China’s NEV sales have soared from 1.37 million in 2020 to 6.89 million in 2022, with the market growing 158% in 2021 and 96% in 2022, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). The penetration rate for NEVs in China reached around 36% as of November last year, a relatively high figure but still far from saturation. And with penetration rates much lower overseas, Chinese NEV makers have plenty of space to grow both at home and abroad.

根据中国汽车工业协会数据，在2020年至2022年，中国新能源汽车销量为136.7万辆、352.1万辆以及688.7万辆，按年增长10.9%、157.6%及95.6%。截至今年11月，内地新能源汽车渗透率达36%。换言之与饱和仍有相当距离，即使现已充斥多家造车势力，再加入新的竞争者，市场仍有足够的空间让他们去争取及拼博。别忘记，还有海外这个大市场，足以容纳更多内地车企去开疆拓土。

But the sector is rapidly shaping up as a land governed by rules of the jungle, where only the strongest survive. One of the biggest failures so far has been WM Motor, a highflier whose case illustrates how today’s rising star can rapidly become tomorrow’s flame-out.

我们看，新能源车未来市场仍大有可为，但发展的过程中，同业竞争，淘弱留强是必然事情，当年威马汽车挟强势而来，最终败走麦城，可见企业的能力才是关键，如何去应对是重要一环。

There’s little doubt that Lei may have what it takes to succeed in the cutthroat space, given his past record. After making his name at software maker Kingsoft, Lei went on to build his smartphone empire from scratch into one of the world’s top smartphone brands. Despite criticism that xiaomi has yet to find a place in the most profitable high end of the smartphone market, it is still one of the top three global brands in terms of sales volume.

对于小米的雷军，从金山软件(3888.HK)的成功，到十年前一个门外汉，在杀戮战场的手机行业上由零开始，最终排除万难，成为前列手机品牌，于中国及海外市场占有重要席位，足见雷军及其团队有相当能耐。纵然有批评声音指小米在做高端手机一直未能成功，但小米目前仍是全球智能手机品牌中，按货量计稳居前三之列。就如初创或私募投资，很着重看领导团队，而小米创始人就有一个亮丽的履历去让人投下信心一票。

原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

And while xiaomi’s recent NEV pivot may look like a whim to some, Lei actually began exploring the space as early as 10 years ago by investing in NEV startups like carmakers XPeng and Nio, as well as others like Segway-Ninebot, a maker of electric scooters. xiaomi has also invested in companies like Hesai and RoboSense, makers of LiDAR technology used in autonomous driving. Such investments have provided xiaomi with a considerable network of contacts that can provide experience and knowledge for the company’s own push into NEVs.

雷军并不是睡醒觉就突然想要造车，早在十年前已有部署，雷军当年已布局，在乘用车领域投资小鹏(9868.HK)和蔚来(9866.HK)，另外又投资九号公司、工匠派及石头科技等。期间，小米针对激光雷达企业，投资了禾赛科技(HSAI.HK)和速腾聚创(2498.HK)等重点品牌，透过投资去参与及观察，汲取了多年经验及知识，并建立相当的人脉关系。

Laying the groundwork

雷军人生最后一击

Such preemptive planning and investing are likely key factors that gave xiaomi access to the kinds of talent, technology and manufacturing capabilities it needed to bring its first NEV to market just 1,003 days after announcing its intent to enter the space.

就是雷军的早有筹谋，是以在公布造车后的1,003天里，小米才能短时间内解决人才任用、造车资质、及自建工厂等事宜。

xiaomi also shouldn’t have any funding problems for its NEV foray thanks to its huge established business, unlike startups that are continually challenged for cash. In the third quarter alone, the company reported operating cash flow of 13.3 billion yuan, 31.7 billion yuan in cash on hand, 51.4 billion yuan in short-term bank deposits, and just 44.8 billion yuan in long- and short-term borrowing.

财务上，雷军拓展电动车时，有小米这家上市公司作后盾，确实具有一定优势，我们看看小米第三季度的财务报表，光在第三季度，经营现金流有133亿元，手头现金316.5亿元，短期银行存款也有514亿元，而长短期借贷只是448亿元。虽然造车的投资动辄以百亿计算，但以现时小米的财力，加上雷军的人脉关系，赋以昔日亮丽的创业成绩，要在市场找融资相信并不成问题。难怪雷军在发布会上敢说出“不差钱”这三个字。

Lei and his big NEV ambitions look like a modern equivalent of Oda Nobunaga, a Japanese daimyō and leading figure of the Sengoku period in the 15th and 16th centuries, who strived to rule Japan by initiating wars. “This is the last major entrepreneurial venture of my life. I am willing to stake my reputation and accomplishments on the battlefield to go all out in developing xiaomi cars,” Lei said.

日本战国时代的大名织田信长，雄心勃勃统一天下，向天下布武，今天雷军公开叫阵，扬言最快在15年内打进前五大车厂之列。他豪言地说：“这是我人生最后一次重大的创业项目，我愿意押上人生所有的战绩和声誉，全力以赴去做小米汽车。”

Such words may be largely rhetoric, designed to draw attention to what could possibly be xiaomi’s biggest-ever gamble. But it’s a gamble that could stand good chances for success, given Lei Jun’s strong track record in software and smartphones, coupled with his strong ability and endless enthusiasm.

事实上，以雷军在软件及手机行业做出的骄人成绩，加上他的能力及一往无前的精神，大有机会在新能源车的市场上站稳一重要席位。