重点不是国家控制一切，它需要扮演一个不同的角色

【本文为北京大学新结构经济学研究院院长林毅夫教授接受波兰《共和国报》采访翻译稿。波兰《共和国报》（Rzeczpospolita）创办于1982年，是波兰一份全国性的综合日报，原为政府机关报，后改制为私营性质的独立性报纸，面向波兰全国发行，平均日发行量20余万份。】

特朗普政策将会对世界产生什么样的影响？我们正濒于“贸易战”边缘吗？

林毅夫：我希望不会。特朗普（政府）正试图采取一些的举措来提高美国经济运行效率，因而我们需要去理解美国经济疲软的原因。的确，美国人民不得不面对贸易逆差，究其主要原因还是在于过度的消费与较少的储蓄。正因为美元是全球主要的储备货币，美国才能长期维持如此庞大的（贸易）赤字，他们可以直接发行货币来弥补贸易赤字。中国对美国的出口主要是劳动密集型产品，而这些产品美国已经将近半个世纪没有生产。

如何降低“贸易战”的风险？

林毅夫：首先，我希望经济理性能够获胜。其次，如果美国征收不合理的关税，那么受影响的国家必须予以回应：以牙还牙。这是让美国明白他们所实行的政策是不正确的唯一途径。

让我们来谈谈中国。欧洲GDP增长对中国经济形势的依赖性日益增加。什么原因可以导致中国（经济）“硬着陆”呢？

林毅夫：“中国经济崩溃论”已经反反复复预言了至少二三十年（笑）。跟过去一样，我依然坚信中国将维持稳定和合理增长。

合理意味着什么呢?

林毅夫：每年6%或者更高。

（持续）多久？

林毅夫：在接下来的十年。当然，中国一旦达到美国或德国的收入水平，经济增长率可能会放缓至3%-4%。然而，就目前而言，中国仍处于追赶的阶段。每一个追赶经济体的GDP增长速度都有可能高于高收入水平的国家。

中国日趋老龄化，所以迟早会出现劳动力欠缺的问题。

林毅夫：老龄化社会是一个我们可预见并且能应对的问题。人力资本和退休年龄的调整都将会有所帮助。现如今，女性的退休年龄为50岁，男性为55岁。（对此）我们可以适当进行提高。

在波兰，前政府想把退休年龄提高至67岁，然后选举失利了。

林毅夫：（退休年龄）从65岁调整至67岁或许很难，但对于女性从50岁调到55岁，男性从55岁提到60岁未必如此，因为处于这个年龄的人喜欢工作。但更重要的是人员的素质，这样可以弥补员工数量的减少，这也是我们提高教育水平的原因。20世纪初，每年的大学毕业生将近100万人，而现在超过800万。此外，先进的技术也可以使工作效率提高。中国也可改善基础设施，尤其是城市，诸如地铁和污水排放等。我们在这些方面拥有许多投资机会（推动经济增长）。

波兰也正在追赶。

林毅夫：波兰刚刚跨过了高收入国家的门槛。不过在高收入国家中仍处于较低的收入水平，但这也为进一步增长提供了空间。与中国一样，政府之所以能够进行投资，是因为我国的公共债务在国内生产总值（GDP）的60%以下，这使中国成为负债最少的国家之一。低债务为政府财政刺激经济发展提供了空间。此外，我国国内具有较高的储蓄率。

波兰GDP正以每年5%以上的速度增长。您觉得这可能维持多久呢？

林毅夫：这项增长应该是稳定的。你们以4-5%的增速发展是可能的，因为你们还处于追赶的阶段。目前（你们）教育水平已经较高了。如果波兰能够确保国家和市场之间的一种平衡，那么就有机会继续保持对一个高收入国家来说相对快速的增长速度。

您如何看待莫拉维茨基总理的举措？

林毅夫：负责任的发展战略（SRD）是一项突破，让政府能够在市场是关键，企业是经济增长的驱动力的前提下，支持市场方面发挥恰当的作用。

企业，您是说私营企业吗?

林毅夫：是的，私营。

但是在波兰，当局者都大力支持由政府官员控制的国有企业。

林毅夫：我认为重点不是国家控制一切，它需要扮演一个不同的角色，在经济发展过程中帮助克服必然存在的市场失灵。（波兰）在向市场经济过渡时期，受当时流行的“华盛顿共识”(Washington consensus)影响，认为市场会解决一切问题。但结果却不尽人意，尽管波兰有许多具有具有企业家精神的人才，但由于经济发展过慢，以致于许多人才移民去了爱尔兰、英国和德国。如果政府不帮助克服基础设施不足或员工的教育问题，私营企业难以良好的运转。而在实施了负责任的发展战略（SRD）之后，我们看到GDP增长和就业机会增加的加速。这说明政府并不是要控制一切，而只是起到辅助的作用。

关键在提供因势利导，而非完全掌控？

林毅夫：国家应该是私营企业发展的监管者和因势利导者。我很高兴在（波兰）这里得到了实践。

但如果国家给经济直接指明方向，就有可能错误的风险。我们在20世纪70年代就经历过:投资没有收益，政府濒临破产。我们害怕这样的悲剧重演。

林毅夫：所以必须吸取过去的教训。国家可能会犯错误，所以需要建立一个能够降低这种风险的框架体系。政府的因势利导应该支持的是波兰具有比较优势的产业。

如何选择（有比较优势的产业）？

林毅夫：波兰有发展前景的产业可分为五种类型。第一种是波兰处于追赶的产业，其所生产的产品附加值要远低于德国或美国。政府可以支持这些产业，让它们改进技术以达到更高的（附加值）水平。第二种是世界领先型产业。为了保持这些产业里的公司保持领先地位，他们必须不断进行创新，包括新产品（引进）。而新产品必须经过研究与开发，私营企业有积极性进行开发，但研究却存在风险。

 …他们常常不能偿还（研发）所产生的费用……

林毅夫：因此，国家应该支持那些处于世界前列的私人企业所需的相关研究。

那日趋衰落的采矿业呢?

林毅夫：而对于那些失去比较优势的行业，政府需要去甄别出仍在全球范围内有竞争性的产品或服务。例如，采矿机械和设备的生产，（政府）可以帮助这些机械制造商通过研发的方式来增强他们的领先地位。而对于采矿工人而言，（政府）可以帮助他们找一份其他行业的工作，例如蓬勃发展的服务业。第四种是以人力资本为基础的短创新周期型产业，由于波兰拥有高水平的教育据此可创造出在世界范围内具有竞争力的产品。而且政府仅仅只需要通过支持孵化与建立风险投资基金来营造创新的环境。

最后一种类型是战略型产业，需要较长的创新周期。有时需要持续10-20年。（这类产业）有些关乎国防安全，其余则与具有重要战略意义的新兴产业有关。私营企业不会自发进入这些领域，除非它自身确定可以（为经济发展）做出贡献并且能够得到政府的政策支持。这是需要政府在财政方面给予支持，而不是扭曲市场甚至是垄断。

关于下一次（金融）危机呢？赫尔曼·范龙佩（Herman VanRompuy）称其肯定会来，但不知是在何时何地……

林毅夫：…所以我们必须做好准备。我们迟早会面临像2008年那样的全球性金融危机。危机来临时，政府必须快速采取行动维持（经济）稳定并实现（经济）复苏。一方面，政府可以救济失业人群，另一方面，危机也可能是国家投资的机会。比如基础设施的瓶颈，投资可以创造就业机会，并减少在失业救济津贴方面的花销。政府应当提前准备好这些预案。如果只是在危机爆发后才开始这样做，那么就不会有明显成效，因为（这些措施）在危机即将结束之时可能才进入实施阶段。

【翻页查看英文版】

​What will be the influence of Trump's policy on the world? Are we on the verge of a trade war?

I hope not. Trump is trying to do something for the efficiency of the US economy, so we need to understand why it is weak. Indeed, Americans have to face a trade deficit, but its main reason is over consumption and too little saving. The US manages to keep such a large deficit for so long, because the dollar is the main reserve currency of the world. They can print money to cover the trade deficit. Exports fromChina to the US are mainly labor-intensive products, which Americans have not been producing for half a century.

How to reduce the risk of a trade war?

First of all, I hope that economic reason will win. And secondly, if the Americans introduce those unreasonable tariffs, the countries affected will have to answer: a blow for a blow. This is the only way for the US to understand that the policy they propose is not right.

Let's talk about China. The dependence of GDP growth in Europe on the economic situation in your country is growing. What could happen with China's hard landing?

The coming collapse of the Chinese economy is being foretold repeatedly for at least 20 or 30 years (laughs). Like in the past, I am convinced that China will maintain stability and a reasonable growth.

What does it mean to be reasonable?

6 percent annually or more.

For how long?

Over the next decade. Of course, once China reaches the level of income of the US or Germany, the growth rate may slow down to 3-4 percent. For now, however, China is still on the track of catchng up. And as in every  catching up economy GDP growth will be higher than in high income countries.

China is aging, so sooner or later there will be a problem of lack of hands to work.

The aging of societies is a predictable problem that we can prepare for. Human capital and change in retirement age will help. Today, the retirement age is 50 years for women and 55 for men. We can raise it.

In Poland, the previous government wanted to raise it to 67 years and lost the election.

Perhaps a change from 65 to 67 years is difficult, but from 50 to 55 for women and 55 to 60 for men - not necessarily, because people at that age enjoy work. But more important is the quality of employees, which can compensate for the decrease in their number. That's why we improve education. In the early 2000s, 1 million people a year graduated from universities, now over 8 million. In addition, the efficiency of work is enhanced by advanced technologies. China can also improve infrastructure, especially urban, like metro, sewerage. We have many investment opportunities here (which will fuel the economy’s growth -ed.).

Poland is also catching up.

And you have just crossed the threshold to high-income countries. You have income in the lower zone in this group, which gives you room for further growth. Just like China, where the authorities are able to carry out investments, because public debt is below 60 %of the country's GDP, which situates it among the least in debted. Low debt gives the government space for fiscal stimulus of the economy. And in addition, we have high domestic savings in China.

In Poland, GDP is growing at a rate of over 5% annually. How long will it be possible to maintain it?

It seems that the growth is stable.You can develop at a rate of 4-5%, because you are still in the phase of catching up. The level of education is high. And if you are able to ensure a balance between the state and the market, then you have the opportunity to maintain relatively fast growth for a high-income country.

What do you think about the actions of Prime Minister Morawiecki?

The strategy of responsible development is a break through, allowing the government to play a proper role in supporting the market, while the market is key here and entrepreneurship is the driving force behind growth.

Entrepreneurship, you mean the private sector?

Yes, private.

But in Poland, the authorities are strongly opting for the state-owned companies, which are controlled by politicians.

I do not think it's about the state's domination of everything. It has a different role to play. It helps to overcome market failures that are immanent in economic development. Here, during the transition to a market economy, prevailed the idea of the Washington consensus, according to which the market should care for itself. But this did not happen, as a result, despite the entrepreneurial spirit, growth was too small to stop the emigration of talented Poles to Ireland, Great Britain and Germany. The private sector can not work well if the state does not help with overcoming shortcoming of  infrastructure or employee’s education problems. After the implementation of the responsible development strategy, we see acceleration of GDP growth and job creation. And it is not because the state wants to dominate. It has an auxiliary role.

Facilitation, not domination is the key word?

The state should be a regulator and a facilitator for the development of the private sector. I am glad that this is practiced here.

But if it gives direction to the economy, there is a risk of an error. We experienced it in the 1970s: the investments did not pay off and the state went bankrupt. We are afraid of the repetition.

You have to take lessons from the past. The state can make mistakes, so you need to impose a framework that will reduce the risk. It should support the sectors in which Poland has a competitive advantage.

How to choose them?

Promising sectors in Poland can be divided into five categories. The first one is the Polish industry at the stage of catching up, whose products have a lower added value than thosefrom Germany or the USA. The government can support these industries so that they improve technology and get to a higher level. The second category are companies that are world leaders. In order to maintain their position, they must introduce innovations, including new products. These must pass the phase of research and then development. The private sector is good at development, while research is risky.

... And they do not often refund the costs incurred...

Therefore, the state should help the sectors in which you are already world-class at the research stage.

What about mining, which is slowly dying?

In industries that lose comparative advantages, you need to identify those products or services in the industries  that are able to compete on a global level. This is, for example, the production of mining machinery and equipment. You can help manufacturers strengthen their leading position, for example through research and development. And as for the miners, you can help them find another job. For example, services are developing. The forth type is  is short innovation-cycle industries, based on human capital: due to the high level of education you may be able to create a new product that will be very competitive in the world. You only need to build a creative environment by supporting incubation and venture capital funds.

The last type is – strategic industries, which require long innovation cycles. Sometimes it's 10-20 years. Some are related to national defense, others to new industries of strategic importance. The private sector will not enter it by itself, unless it knows that it can count on government support. This should be fiscal support, not distorting the market or creating amonopoly.

What about the next crisis? Herman Van Rompuy says it will surely come, but not where and when ...

... so we must be prepared. Sooner or later, we will see a global financial crisis like in 2008. During a crisis, it is necessary for the state to maintain stability and recover quickly. It can support those who lose their jobs. On the other hand, the crisis may be an opportunity for the state to invest, for example in infrastructure bottlenecks. Investments create jobs and reduce spending on unemployment benefits. The state should prepare such projects in advance. If it starts to do so only after the crisis strikes that it will not bring results, because they will enter the phase of implementation when the crisis is about to end.