印度军官暗示击败中国军队只需十天

一名不愿透露姓名的印度空军官员表示,倘若中国军队率先发起进攻,那么中国军队将使用榴弹炮和火箭炮掩护部队前进,并通过防空导弹系统防范印度空军的袭击。

该军官称:“这是苏联打仗时采用的‘古老策略’,不过对手部署在纵深地区的航空兵也将提供防空掩护。”

他说:“一旦(对手的)防空导弹系统被摧毁,积聚的炮兵、火箭炮和部队都将集中暴露在荒漠之中,那里没有为这些力量准备的天然伪装。”

这名军官还指出,印军可以准备进行一场为期10天的高烈度战争。他解释称:“如果没有全球干预,任何印中之间的‘高烈度敌对行动’都不可能持续超过10天。更何况印度军队在当地(边境)存储的弹药可以使用40天,常规炸弹则可以使用60天。”

The officer, who dissected the Chinese positioning and war plan in a worst-case scenario for HT on condition of anonymity, said that a Chinese offensive, if and when it comes, is likely to involve troops moving forward under a barrage of artillery and rocket fire, with surface-to-air missile batteries giving protection to their weapon systems from IAF attacks. “This is the old Soviet way of fighting a war, with troops based in depth areas (in this case, Hotan airbase 320km from the Line of Actual Control) providing the air-defence cover,” the officer added.

While several strategic experts believe that any future war will be fought with stand-off weapons used to force Indian fighters to remain on ground, the IAF’s “disperse, absorb, recoup and retaliate” strategy has been war-gamed enough times (including in the Gagan Shakti 2018 exercise) to repel China’s plans, the officer said. He explained that the reaction of the IAF to any offensive is faster than that of the PLA Air Force due to the distance of the LAC from air bases such as Hotan, Lhasa or Kashgar, and that PLA’s surface-to-air missile sites become vulnerable to the stand-off air-to-ground missiles of Indian fighters. “Once air-defence missile systems are knocked out, the amassed artillery, rockets and troop concentrations become exposed on the Tibetan desert, where there is no natural camouflage cover for these systems,” the officer said.

The officer cited above further said that while the PLA has packed depth areas with troops, any aggression on mountainous terrain will not be easy against a dug-in adversary like the Indian Army in Ladakh. The 1999 Kargil war taught the Indian army that when the aggressor is concentrated and exposed, it becomes vulnerable to air interdiction. This makes the effort to hit Indian troops, who are dominating strategic heights both in the north and south of Pangong Tso, harder in the winter months. Even a Chinese stand-off weapon, given its circular error of probability (a measure of precision) may find it hard to target dug-in troops sitting on mountaintops in sub-polar temperatures, and in the absence of cover from attacking forces in the cold Ladakh desert and the Soda Plains, he added.

The officer was confident that Indian forces could sustain a Chinese strike in a worst-case scenario.The military is prepared for a 10-day intensive war, with the Narendra Modi government allowing emergency purchases of critical ammunition and missiles after the 2016 Uri surgical strikes and 2019 Balakot strikes against Pakistan. “Any India-China hostility is unlikely to continue at an intense level without global intervention beyond 10 days,” the officer explained, adding that the indigenous ammunition is available for 40 days and conventional bombs for 60 days.

全部专栏