联合国粮农组织：新冠肺炎会对农业和粮食安全产生什么影响？

应尽快采取措施减少疫情对全球食品系统的破坏性影响

中新社发 王闽 摄

2019年12月下旬，一种新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）被确定为引起中国大量呼吸道疾病发生的病因。

武汉是疫情最早发生的城市，也是一座连接中国国内和国际经济交通的枢纽城市。在一个月时间里，这种致命病毒让世界为之恐慌，恐惧心理的传播速度超过了病毒本身。目前来看，这种病毒的传染性似乎很高，但致命性却不如众所周知的严重急性呼吸系统综合症（非典/SARS）冠状病毒和中东呼吸综合症冠状病毒（MERS-cov）。

尽管2019冠状病毒病疫情主要是一场公共卫生危机，但专家们担心疫情可能会对中国和全球经济产生更广泛的影响，扰乱全球社会和经济发展。

从公共卫生和社会经济角度看，如果把2003年的非典疫情作为参照点来推断此次疫情的演变过程，中国对当今世界经济的贡献与17年前相比已发生显著变化。

自非典以来，中国在应对此类紧急情况方面也取得了长足进展。据国际货币基金组织（IMF）数据显示，在过去十多年里，中国的全球经济地位显著提升，2018年中国对全球GDP的贡献为18.67%，与之相对，2003年中国对全球经济产出的贡献为8.74%。

同时，中国也是世界上第一大贸易国。通过大量双边和多边贸易协定，中国的贸易地位在全球根深蒂固。尽管包括林业和渔业在内的农业在中国GDP中的比重正在下降，但其对2018年中国GDP的贡献为7.19%。

中国进出口贸易的足迹几乎遍布世界各国，农业和粮食在中国的贸易组合中占了很大份额。

在此背景下，2019冠状病毒病疫情会对中国和国外农业供需方面产生何种影响，又会给食品价格、市场带来何种连锁反应等问题也备受关注。

目前，专家们对此问题的看法仍然非常谨慎，一切尚待观察。但疫情未来的演变至关重要，因为疫情对经济或农业的影响很大程度上取决于这场抗“疫”战还需持续多久，以及企业何时可以纾困，恢复正常运营。因此，在现阶段评估对农业方面的影响还为时过早。

从以往突发公共卫生事件经验看，限制货物和人员流动可能会产生重大的社会经济影响，超出对健康的直接影响，并影响到最弱势的群体。虽然这些限制措施有助于抑制疾病传播，但其往往会导致市场链和农产品贸易的中断，对依赖它们维持生计和保障粮食及营养安全的人群产生重大潜在影响。

在此情况下，地方经济往往受到最严重的冲击，中小规模商家企业尤甚，其产品供应链由于交通和人员流动的限制而受到较大影响。2018年8月非洲猪瘟（ASF）疫情发生之后，已经严重影响中国养猪业，造成消费者价格指数上涨和小农户收入损失。

为应对疫情对农业及农村地区的不利影响，中国政府采取了一系列措施。例如，农业农村部正在监测情况，并采取了一系列措施，以减轻小微企业的压力。今年1月27日，农业农村部、人力资源和社会保障部、国家卫健委联合下发通知，强调做好农村地区疫情防控工作。为确保疫情期间粮食供应和质量安全，农业农村部今年1月30日下发通知，强调支持和保障疫情期间及之后的冬春季粮食生产。

尽管目前工作重点是抑制疫情扩散，但也应尽快采取措施，最大程度减少疫情对本地和全球食品系统和市场链的破坏性影响。研究疫情对农村地区民生的影响，以及这种病毒在人-动物-环境接触面上是如何起源和产生的，这对于防止未来再次发生此类疫情至关重要。

在“同一健康”框架下，目前，联合国粮农组织正在与包括中国农业农村部、中国农业科学院（CAAS）在内的国内合作伙伴以及世界卫生组织（WHO）和世界动物卫生组织（OIE）等国际机构紧密合作，帮助确定该病毒潜在的动物宿主，并评估其对小农生计的影响。2月5日，联合国粮农三机构（粮农组织、农发基金和粮食计划署）也曾联合发布声明表示，已准备好为中国政府提供支持，努力减轻疫情造成的影响，特别是对农村地区的影响。

本文作者马文森为联合国粮农组织驻中国和朝鲜代表

中新社国是直通车刘亮译

以下为英文原文：

What impact could the COVID-19 （Coronavirus）epidemic have on agriculture and food security?

Vincent Martin, FAO Representative in China and DPR Korea

In late December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the cause of a significant number of human cases of a respiratory disease in China. The current outbreak was first detected in Wuhan City, which is a major domestic and international economic and transport hub in China. In a month’s time, the deadly virus has turned the world upside down, and fear has spread faster than the virus, which appears to be highly contagious but less lethal than its now well-known predecessors of the same coronavirus family, SARS and MERS-cov.

Although the 2019-nCOV epidemic is primarily a Public Health crisis, experts are already voicing their concerns that the virus could have a much broader impact on the Chinese and global economy, leading to worldwide socio- economic disruptions.

If 2003 SARS epidemic is often taken as a reference point to extrapolate on the course of evolution of this novel coronavirus epidemic, from a public health and socio-economic perspective, China’s contribution to the world economy today does not compare to what it was 17 years ago.

It has also come a long way since SARS, in its capacity to handle rapidly and efficiently such emergency situations. China has now become central to the global economy during the last decades, contributing 18.67 percent to the world GDP in 2018, while it accounted for 8.74 percent of world economic output in 2003, according to the International Monetary Fund.

China is also the world’s biggest trading nation deeply entrenched in global trade through a multitude of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. Although the share of agriculture, including forestry and fisheries in the country’s GDP is declining, its contribution to national GDP was 7.19 percent in 2018. The country’s exports and imports cover destinations and sources spanning all regions of the world and agriculture and food constitutes a significant share of China’s trade portfolio. This has subsequently raised questions of the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on the agriculture supply and demand side, in China and abroad, with possible ripple effects on food prices and markets.

However, as of today, expert’s opinions on this matter remain very cautious and the only certainty is that nothing is certain at the moment. The evolution of the epidemic during the coming days and weeks will be crucial, and its impact on the economy or the agriculture sector will very much depend on the time needed to stop the spread of the deadly virus.

Assessing the impact on the agriculture sector is therefore premature and only speculative at this stage and will depend on how long the health emergency lasts and restrictive measures remain in place before businesses can resume normal operations.

Learning from the past and similar Public Health emergencies, restrictions on the movement of goods and people can have significant socio-economic repercussions on people’s livelihoods, going beyond the direct impact on health, and affecting the most vulnerable groups. While these restrictions are necessary to limit the spread of a disease, they often lead to disruption of market chains and trade of agricultural products, with significant potential impacts on the populations that depend on them for their livelihoods and their food and nutrition security.

In such cases, local economies are often the hardest hit, as businesses remain shuttered and consumers hunkered down in their homes. Most affected might be medium-sized companies and small businesses as supply chains of their products are disrupted due to restrictions on transportation and people’s movements. This current coronavirus epidemic is also happening in the aftermath of the African Swine Fever (ASF) epidemic that started in August 2018 and affected severely the Chinese’s pig industry, leading to an increase in prices for consumers and income losses for smallholder farmers.

To counter such adverse effects in rural areas, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) is carefully monitoring the situation and has taken a series of measures to ease the pressure on small businesses, while contributing to the national effort of halting the inter-human transmission. On 27 January, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and National Health Commission issued a joint information note to farmers for prevention and control of the virus in rural areas. Recognizing the importance of ensuring the supply of food in good quantity and quality during the emergency period, MARA also issued on 30 January 2020 a notice to support and guarantee winter and spring food production during the epidemic period and beyond.

Ultimately, while today’s focus is on stopping the interhuman transmission, mitigation and early recovery measures should be anticipated and put in place as soon as possible to minimize the disruptive effect on food systems and market chains, locally and globally. Understanding the impact on people’s livelihood in rural areas and studying the origin and emergence of the virus at the human-animal-environment interface are of paramount importance to prevent the reoccurrence of such epidemics in the future.

Under the One Health approach, FAO is working closely with national partners, MARA and the Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences – CAAS, among others as well as international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) to assist in identifying the potential animal hosts of this virus and also to measure the impact on smallholder farmer’s livelihood. These were some of the key messages delivered in a statement by the Rome based Food agencies (FAO, IFAD and WFP) on the 5th of February, which are willing to provide all the support needed to the Government of China and the Chinese people in their race to defeat the virus and mitigate its impact on people’s health and livelihoods.